OceanaGold (TSX:OGC): Valuation Check After Key New Zealand Approval Unlocks Waihi North Growth Potential

OceanaGold (TSX:OGC) just cleared a major hurdle in New Zealand, securing final government approval for its Waihi North Project and the Wharekirauponga Underground mine, a long dated but meaningful growth driver.

See our latest analysis for OceanaGold.

The latest approval lands after a string of positive catalysts, including progress on the Brewer copper gold earn in in the US. This helps explain why the stock’s 30 day share price return of 14.25 percent sits within a much larger 1 year total shareholder return of 219.59 percent, suggesting momentum is still firmly building rather than fading.

If OceanaGold’s trajectory has you thinking about where the next growth story might come from, this could be a good time to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With production set to rise, earnings growing fast, and the share price already up more than 200 percent in a year, is OceanaGold still trading below its true value, or is the market already pricing in its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 5.5% Undervalued

With OceanaGold closing at CA$38.09 against a narrative fair value of CA$40.31, the current price still sits below that favored roadmap.

The analysts have a consensus price target of CA$26.986 for OceanaGold based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of CA$31.45, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just CA$22.19.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see why this narrative expects revenue and earnings to compound so aggressively, while still assuming a surprisingly modest future earnings multiple? The underlying projections challenge what investors usually assign to a cyclical metals name, yet still target robust profitability and capital returns. Curious which combinations of margin expansion, production growth, and share count changes underpin that seemingly conservative valuation anchor? Read on to uncover the full playbook behind this fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $40.31 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent ore hardness at Haile or further weather disruptions at Didipio could crimp margins and delay the aggressive earnings ramp that is incorporated into this outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this OceanaGold narrative.

Build Your Own OceanaGold Narrative

If this view does not quite align with how you see OceanaGold, you can review the numbers yourself and create a personalized outlook in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding OceanaGold.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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