Trinidad Shutdown and Supply Hurdles Might Change The Case For Investing In Nutrien (TSX:NTR)

• Nutrien announced it recently commenced a controlled shutdown of its Trinidad Point Lisas nitrogen operations, effective October 23, 2025, due to ongoing port access restrictions and unreliable natural gas supply imposed by Trinidad and Tobago's National Energy Corporation.
• Despite these operational challenges, the company affirmed it remains on track to meet its full-year 2025 nitrogen sales guidance, leveraging the strength of its North American operations.
• We'll explore how Nutrien's Trinidad facility shutdown, prompted by persistent supply issues, may influence the company's long-term fertilizer market outlook.

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Nutrien Investment Narrative Recap

The long-term thesis for Nutrien centers on the essential role of fertilizer in meeting rising global food demand, supported by the company’s scale and operational efficiency. The recent controlled shutdown of the Trinidad nitrogen facility, while logistically significant, is not expected to materially affect Nutrien’s biggest short-term catalyst: the ability to meet current nitrogen sales targets. However, supply chain uncertainties outside North America, highlighted by this event, remain a key business risk for shareholders to watch.

The most relevant recent development is Nutrien’s reaffirmation of its 2025 nitrogen sales volume guidance, driven by strong performance in its North American operations. This update provides near-term reassurance about the impact of the Trinidad facility closure on overall sales, at least for the current guidance period.

But with increased dependence on a concentrated geographic footprint, investors should also be aware of the ongoing...

Read the full narrative on Nutrien (it's free!)

Nutrien's outlook forecasts $27.5 billion in revenue and $2.3 billion in earnings by 2028. This implies a 3.2% annual revenue growth rate and a $0.9 billion increase in earnings from the current $1.4 billion level.

Uncover how Nutrien's forecasts yield a CA$87.81 fair value, a 9% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fair value estimates from 10 members of the Simply Wall St Community put Nutrien between CA$67 and CA$101.90 per share. Yet, ongoing supply and regulatory risks could shape future earnings strength in ways that differ widely across the market, so explore several viewpoints.

Explore 10 other fair value estimates on Nutrien - why the stock might be worth as much as 26% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Nutrien Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Nutrien research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Nutrien research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Nutrien's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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