Nutrien Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Shareholders might have noticed that Nutrien Ltd. (TSE:NTR) filed its second-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.9% to CA$76.56 in the past week. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$10b, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 11%, coming in at US$2.50 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Nutrien from 16 analysts is for revenues of US$26.4b in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 5.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 38% to US$3.86. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$26.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.73 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Nutrien's earnings potential following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Nutrien

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of CA$85.51, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Nutrien, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$97.14 and the most bearish at CA$62.21 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Nutrien's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 12% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.2% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.4% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Nutrien to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Nutrien following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$85.51, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Nutrien. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Nutrien going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Nutrien has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.