Nutrien Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Nutrien Ltd. (TSE:NTR) just released its latest first-quarter report and things are not looking great. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$4.9b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 91%, coming in at just US$0.02 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the 18 analysts covering Nutrien are now predicting revenues of US$25.3b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a credible 2.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 251% to US$3.79. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$26.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.61 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that while sentiment around revenues has declined following the latest results, the analysts are now more bullish on the company's earnings power.

Check out our latest analysis for Nutrien

The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of CA$78.96, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Nutrien, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$96.13 and the most bearish at CA$56.23 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Nutrien's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.1% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Nutrien.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Nutrien's earnings potential next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at CA$78.96, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Nutrien analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Nutrien you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.