New Risk • Jul 06
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by earnings. The company is paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Dividend yield: 1.7% This is considered a minor risk. Companies that pay out too much of their earnings are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If earnings growth slows or earnings fall, then there may not be enough earnings to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to dig into capital reserves or take on debt to maintain the dividend. However, this risk is mitigated by the fact the dividend is covered by cash flows. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.0x net interest cover). Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (CA$1.2m sold). Live News • Jun 30
Methanex to Idle Trinidad Titan Plant Indefinitely After Gas Contract Talks Stall Methanex will begin indefinitely idling its Titan methanol plant in Trinidad and Tobago after failing to agree a new natural gas contract, ahead of the current contract’s expiry in the third quarter of 2026. The company will place the facility in preservation to allow for a possible restart if conditions improve.
Titan is a meaningful production asset for Methanex, so idling it could affect the company’s methanol output, regional supply chain and earnings contribution from Trinidad and Tobago until there is clarity on future gas supply terms.
Methanex shares last traded at CA$69.30 and are up 23.8% year to date, despite the recent announcement around the Titan plant.
The Titan decision highlights Methanex’s exposure to natural gas contract negotiations and concentrates more of the company’s operating risk and potential upside in its remaining plants, which may influence how you think about its geographic and feedstock diversification. Announcement • Jun 30
Methanex Begins Process of Indefinitely Idling Titan Methanol Plant in Trinidad and Tobago Methanex Corporation announced that it has been unable to agree to a new natural gas contract for its Titan methanol plant in Trinidad and Tobago (860,000 tonnes per year capacity) and, as a result, will begin the process of indefinitely idling the facility. Titan’s existing natural gas contract expires in the third quarter of 2026. Methanex will undertake a preservation process at the Titan plant to provide optionality for a future restart should conditions materially improve. The Atlas methanol plant, a joint venture in which Methanex holds a 63.1% economic interest, remains indefinitely idled in a preserved state. Titan is not currently contributing to the Company’s Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Free Cash Flow. Methanex does not expect to incur material cash costs as a result of this decision and any updates to production or financial guidance will be released with Methanex’s regular second quarter financial communications scheduled for July 28, 2026. Live News • Jun 14
Methanex Stock Climbs as Supply Tightens and Texas Acquisition Expands Global Reach Methanex stock has risen 48% year to date, supported by tighter global methanol supply and reduced exports from Iran linked to conflict in the Middle East.
The company completed the acquisition of OCI and two world-scale methanol plants in Texas in June 2025, expanding its integrated production and logistics footprint.
CIBC Capital Markets raised its target price on Methanex to US$66 from US$59 while keeping a Neutral rating, and Riverwater Partners added the stock to its Sustainable Value Strategy for Q1 2026.
The key thread across these updates is that constrained methanol supply and Methanex’s larger, integrated asset base are drawing more attention from both sell-side analysts and institutional investors.
It is also worth noting that the stock’s strong year-to-date move and Neutral analyst rating highlight both potential opportunity and execution risk around integrating the OCI assets and the durability of current supply conditions. Announcement • Jun 10
Methanex Corporation to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Jul 28, 2026 Methanex Corporation announced that they will report Q2, 2026 results at 5:00 PM, US Eastern Standard Time on Jul 28, 2026 Upcoming Dividend • Jun 09
Upcoming dividend of US$0.18 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 16 June 2026. Payment date: 30 June 2026. The company is not currently making a profit but it is cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 1.3%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (5.4%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.1%). Live News • May 06
Methanex Lifts Q2 Outlook as Middle East Supply Issues Boost Methanol Prices Q1 2026 revenue came in at $974 million, slightly ahead of expectations, with adjusted net income at $23 million and a net loss of $14 million driven by mark-to-market share-based compensation.
The company signalled a stronger Q2 EBITDA outlook, supported by higher realized methanol prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions and benefits from the Beaumont and ammonia businesses.
Management plans to repay a major term loan in Q2 to reduce leverage, with share buybacks considered after debt reduction.
For investors, the key takeaway is that Methanex reported mixed earnings quality in Q1 2026: operational performance and volumes were solid, but weaker methanol pricing and higher cash costs weighed on profit, and accounting impacts from share-based compensation tipped results into a loss. At the same time, supply issues in the Middle East have tightened the methanol market, lifting realized prices and feeding into a more optimistic Q2 EBITDA outlook.
The focus on repaying a significant term loan suggests management is prioritizing a stronger balance sheet before increasing capital returns. Potential buybacks, if pursued later, would sit alongside the integration of the Beaumont assets and the ammonia business as important capital allocation decisions. Investors may also want to pay attention to the structural gas supply challenges in New Zealand and the timing lag between methanol spot price moves and what Methanex ultimately realizes in its contracts, as these factors can influence how quickly market disruptions flow through to earnings. Declared Dividend • May 04
First quarter dividend of US$0.18 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.18. Ex-date: 16th June 2026 Payment date: 30th June 2026 Dividend yield will be 1.1%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months. However, the dividend is well covered by cash flows (8% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. Announcement • May 02
Methanex Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend, Payable on June 30, 2026 Methanex Corporation announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly dividend of USD 0.185 per share. The dividend will be payable on June 30, 2026, to holders of common shares of record on June 16, 2026. Reported Earnings • Apr 30
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations First quarter 2026 results: US$0.18 loss per share (down from US$1.65 profit in 1Q 2025). Revenue: US$973.7m (up 8.6% from 1Q 2025). Net loss: US$13.6m (down 112% from profit in 1Q 2025). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.5% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 28% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 15% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 24
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to CA$80.84, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 21x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Chemicals industry in Canada. Total returns to shareholders of 39% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CA$127 per share. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 10
Upcoming dividend of US$0.18 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 17 March 2026. Payment date: 31 March 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 67% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.5%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (5.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.8%). Announcement • Mar 10
Methanex Corporation to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Apr 29, 2026 Methanex Corporation announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results at 5:00 PM, US Eastern Standard Time on Apr 29, 2026 Reported Earnings • Mar 06
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: US$1.10 (down from US$2.43 in FY 2024). Revenue: US$3.59b (down 3.5% from FY 2024). Net income: US$79.9m (down 51% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 2.2% (down from 4.4% in FY 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 68%. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.6% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 2.9% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 19% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 1% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Mar 06
Methanex Corporation Provides Production Guidance for the Year 2026 Methanex Corporation provided production guidance for the year 2026. For the year, the company expects production to be approximately 9.0 million tonnes (Methanex interest) of methanol and 0.3 million tonnes of ammonia. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 05
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to CA$78.00, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 20x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Chemicals industry in Canada. Total returns to shareholders of 21% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CA$109 per share. Announcement • Feb 09
Methanex Corporation, Annual General Meeting, Apr 30, 2026 Methanex Corporation, Annual General Meeting, Apr 30, 2026. Declared Dividend • Feb 04
Third quarter dividend of US$0.18 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.18. Ex-date: 17th March 2026 Payment date: 31st March 2026 Dividend yield will be 1.4%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (24% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (6% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to grow by 6.8% over the next 2 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Jan 30
Methanex Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend, Payable on March 31, 2026 Methanex Corporation announced today that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly dividend of USD 0.185 per share. The dividend will be payable on March 31, 2026, to holders of common shares of record on March 17, 2026. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 08
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to CA$62.74, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 16x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Chemicals industry in Canada. Total returns to shareholders of 11% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CA$108 per share. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 10
Upcoming dividend of US$0.18 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 17 December 2025. Payment date: 31 December 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 24% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.9%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (5.9%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.6%). Announcement • Dec 09
Methanex Corporation to Report Q4, 2025 Results on Mar 05, 2026 Methanex Corporation announced that they will report Q4, 2025 results on Mar 05, 2026 Announcement • Nov 26
Methanex Corporation Appoints Don Marchand to Its Board of Directors Methanex Corporation announced the appointment of Don Marchand to its Board of Directors effective December 1, 2025. With a career spanning nearly four decades in finance and energy infrastructure, Mr. Marchand brings extensive expertise in financial leadership and corporate strategy. From 1994 onward, he held positions of increasing responsibility in finance at TC Energy (formerly TransCanada Corporation), a leading North American energy infrastructure company. From 2010 until his retirement in 2021, Mr. Marchand served as the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at TC Energy, with additional responsibility for Strategy and Corporate Development for three years during this period. Mr. Marchand graduated with a Bachelor of Commerce from the University of Manitoba and subsequently qualified as a Chartered Accountant and Chartered Financial Analyst. He is a member of the Institute of Chartered Professional Accountants of Alberta, the CFA Institute and the Calgary Society of Financial Analysts. Mr. Marchand also serves as a director of Fortis Inc. Declared Dividend • Nov 21
Third quarter dividend of US$0.18 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.18. Ex-date: 17th December 2025 Payment date: 31st December 2025 Dividend yield will be 1.9%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (24% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (6% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to grow by 26% over the next 2 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Nov 18
Methanex Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend, Payable on December 31, 2025 Methanex Corporation announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly dividend of USD 0.185 per share. The dividend will be payable on December 31, 2025, to holders of common shares of record on December 17, 2025. Reported Earnings • Oct 31
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: US$0.091 loss per share (down from US$0.46 profit in 3Q 2024). Revenue: US$927.4m (flat on 3Q 2024). Net loss: US$7.07m (down 123% from profit in 3Q 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 4.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.4% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 24% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 2% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Oct 30
Methanex Corporation Provides Production Guidance for the Fourth quarter and full Year 2025 Methanex Corporation provided production guidance Fourth quarter and full Year 2025. For the year, The company expects production, inclusive of newly acquired assets, to be approximately 8.0 million tonnes (Methanex interest), of which 7.8 million tonnes are methanol and 0.2 million tonnes are ammonia. Actual production may vary by quarter based on gas availability, turnarounds, unplanned outages and unanticipated events.
In the fourth quarter,company expected higher produced sales combined with a slightly lower average realized price. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 10
Upcoming dividend of US$0.18 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 16 September 2025. Payment date: 30 September 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 20% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.9%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (5.9%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.6%). Announcement • Sep 09
Methanex Corporation to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Oct 29, 2025 Methanex Corporation announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results at 5:00 PM, US Eastern Standard Time on Oct 29, 2025 Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 08
Insider recently bought CA$620k worth of stock On the 5th of September, Karine Delbarre bought around 12k shares on-market at roughly CA$52.76 per share. This transaction increased Karine's direct individual holding by 1x at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought CA$3.2m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. New Risk • Aug 12
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.5% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.5% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks High level of debt (85% net debt to equity). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Declared Dividend • Aug 01
Second quarter dividend of US$0.18 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.18. Ex-date: 16th September 2025 Payment date: 30th September 2025 Dividend yield will be 2.1%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (20% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (6% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to decline by 13% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 78% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Announcement • Jul 31
Methanex Corporation Provides Production Guidance for the Year 2025 Methanex Corporation provided production guidance for the year 2025. For the year, The company expects 2025 production, inclusive of the newly acquired assets, to be approximately 8.0 million tonnes (Methanex interest). Actual production may vary by quarter based on gas availability, turnarounds, unplanned outages and unanticipated. Announcement • Jul 18
Methanex Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend, Payable on September 30, 2025 Methanex Corporation announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly dividend of USD 0.185 per share. The dividend will be payable on September 30, 2025, to holders of common shares of record on September 16, 2025. Announcement • Jun 27
Methanex Corporation (TSX:MX) completed the acquisition of OCI Methanol group from OCI N.V. (ENXTAM:OCI), Alpha Dhabi Holding PJSC (ADX:ALPHADHABI) and Abu Dhabi Developmental Holding Company PJSC. Methanex Corporation (TSX:MX) entered into a definitive agreement to acquire OCI Methanol group from OCI N.V. (ENXTAM:OCI), Alpha Dhabi Holding PJSC (ADX:ALPHADHABI) and Abu Dhabi Developmental Holding Company PJSC for $2.1 billion on September 8, 2024. A cash consideration of $1.15 billion will be paid by Methanex Corporation subject to customary closing adjustments, 9.9 million common equity of Methanex Corporation to be issued and and the assumption of $450 million in debt and leases. Under the definitive agreement with OCI, the approximate $2.05 billion purchase price will consist of $1.18 billion in cash, the issuance of 9.9 million common shares of Methanex valued at $450 million (based on a $45 per share price) and the assumption of approximately $450 million in debt and leases. Purchase price consideration of $2.05 billion on a cash-free and debt-free basis following a competitive process. OCI is expected to become an approximately 13% shareholder, and the second largest shareholder in Methanex following the Transaction. Acquisition expected to be immediately accretive to free cash flow per share. The transaction reflects TEV/EBITDA multiple of 7.5x. Methanex intends to fund the cash consideration of the transaction through a combination of cash on hand and new debt issuance. Following the announcement of the sale of OCI Methanol, OCI repurchased its 11% and 4% minority stakes in OCI Methanol from Alpha Dhabi Holding PJSC and ADQ, respectively. The Company has obtained a fully committed debt financing package from Royal Bank of Canada to support the transaction. Proceeds from the Transaction will be prioritized to significantly reduce OCI holding company gross debt and to return capital to shareholders. OCI holds 85% stake, and Alpha Dhabi Holding and ADQ holds 15% stake in OCI Methanol. Net proceeds to OCI expected to be approximately $1.2 billion after adjusting for net indebtedness, payments to minority interest holders (ADH/ADQ), outstanding gas hedges and other adjustments.
The Transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2025 subject to satisfaction of certain regulatory approvals, customary closing conditions, and other closing conditions including TSX approval for the issuance of Methanex shares to OCI and receipt of OCI shareholder approval. The transaction has been approved by the boards of directors of both companies. An agreement to vote for the Transaction has been signed by the largest shareholder of OCI with an interest of approximately 39% in the Company. As on October 29, 2024, Methanex announced the successful syndication of acquisition financing to support the earlier announced agreement to acquire OCI Global’s international methanol business (“OCI Acquisition”) for $2.05 billion. The new financing arrangements are with a syndicate of highly rated financial institutions and include, up to $650 million in Term Loan A commitments which can be drawn upon closing of the OCI Acquisition. The Term Loan A carries a variable interest rate and is split between three and four-year tenors that can be flexibly repaid to support de-levering, $600 million in revolving credit facility commitments, split between a $400 million tranche which will have a renewed five-year tenor and a $200 million tranche with a three-year tenor, both from closing of the OCI Acquisition. This new facility will replace the Company’s existing $500 million facility which remains available until transaction closing. Both the Term Loan A and new revolving credit facility include financial covenants consistent with the Company’s existing credit facilities. The syndication banks continue to underwrite the remaining bridge facility of $525 million. As of May 14, 2025, European Commission had approved the acquisition on May 14, 2025. As of June 12, 2025, All regulatory approvals required for the closing of the Transaction have been obtained. The transaction is now expected to complete on June 27, 2025.
Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc is serving as financial advisor and Romain Dambre, Andrew Schoorlemmer, Oliver Bacon and Tim Stevens of A&O Shearman is acting as legal advisor to OCI. Methanex’s financial advisors for the transaction were Deutsche Bank and RBC Capital Markets. McCarthy Tétrault LLP, Baker McKenzie LLP, Loyens & Loeff N.V. and Reed Smith LLP acted as legal counsel for Methanex. Deutsche Bank and RBC Capital Markets provided fairness opinions to Methanex’s Board of Directors. Andrew Bab, Jennifer Chu of Debevoise & Plimpton LLP represented Deutsche Bank as financial advisor to Methanex Corporation. Stikeman Elliott LLP acted as legal advisor to OCI N.V. (ENXTAM:OCI).
Methanex Corporation (TSX:MX) completed the acquisition of OCI Methanol group from OCI N.V. (ENXTAM:OCI), Alpha Dhabi Holding PJSC (ADX:ALPHADHABI) and Abu Dhabi Developmental Holding Company PJSC on June 27, 2025. Announcement • Jun 04
Methanex Corporation to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Jul 30, 2025 Methanex Corporation announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results at 5:00 PM, US Eastern Standard Time on Jul 30, 2025 Major Estimate Revision • Apr 30
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 36% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from US$2.79 to US$1.80 per share. Revenue forecast steady at US$4.18b. Net income forecast to grow 45% next year vs 53% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Canada. Consensus price target of CA$76.82 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at CA$43.20 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 25
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to CA$43.07, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Chemicals industry in Canada. Total loss to shareholders of 30% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 07
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 28% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from US$4.38b to US$4.29b. EPS estimate also fell from US$3.87 per share to US$2.79 per share. Net income forecast to grow 45% next year vs 53% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Canada. Consensus price target of CA$78.79 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 23% to CA$39.05 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 03
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15% After last week's 15% share price decline to CA$43.78, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Chemicals industry in Canada. Total loss to shareholders of 34% over the past three years. Announcement • Mar 21
Robert Kostelnik and Margaret Walker Announces Not Stand for Re-Election to the Board of Methanex Corporation Methanex Corporation announced that Mr. Robert Kostelnik and Ms. Margaret Walker are not standing for re-election at the Meeting. Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 13
Insider recently bought CA$613k worth of stock On the 11th of March, Kevin Maloney bought around 11k shares on-market at roughly CA$53.76 per share. This transaction amounted to 61% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought CA$1.7m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 10
Upcoming dividend of US$0.18 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 17 March 2025. Payment date: 31 March 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 30% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.8%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (6.4%). Lower than average of industry peers (4.1%). Reported Earnings • Mar 09
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: US$2.43 (down from US$2.57 in FY 2023). Revenue: US$3.72b (flat on FY 2023). Net income: US$164.0m (down 5.8% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 4.4% (down from 4.7% in FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 17%. Revenue is forecast to grow 10% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.0% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 45% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 3% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Mar 06
Methanex Corporation to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Apr 30, 2025 Methanex Corporation announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results at 5:00 PM, Eastern Standard Time on Apr 30, 2025 New Risk • Mar 04
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The company has an unstable dividend paying track record. The dividend has had an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Dividend yield: 1.9% This is considered a minor risk. If the company has cut or reduced its dividend in the past, it may be a sign that the underlying business is too cyclical to consistently maintain or grow the dividend over the long-term. It may also indicate the company prioritizes other outcomes instead of maintaining the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (64% net debt to equity). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Announcement • Feb 07
Methanex Corporation, Annual General Meeting, May 01, 2025 Methanex Corporation, Annual General Meeting, May 01, 2025. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 05
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 35% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has improved. 2025 revenue forecast increased from US$4.38b to US$4.44b. EPS estimate increased from US$2.87 to US$3.87 per share. Net income forecast to grow 62% next year vs 58% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Canada. Consensus price target of CA$78.73 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 3.9% to CA$74.71 over the past week. Declared Dividend • Feb 03
Fourth quarter dividend of US$0.18 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.18. Ex-date: 17th March 2025 Payment date: 31st March 2025 Dividend yield will be 1.3%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (30% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (9% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to grow by 57% over the next 2 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Jan 31
Methanex Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend, Payable on March 31, 2025 Methanex Corporation announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly dividend of USD 0.185 per share. The dividend will be payable on March 31, 2025, to holders of common shares of record on March 17, 2025. Reported Earnings • Jan 30
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: US$2.43 (down from US$2.57 in FY 2023). Revenue: US$3.72b (flat on FY 2023). Net income: US$164.0m (down 5.8% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 4.4% (down from 4.7% in FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 17%. Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 3.9% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 45% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 8% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Jan 30
Methanex Corporation Provides Consolidated Production Guidance for the Year 2025 Methanex Corporation provided consolidated production guidance for the year 2025. The company's expected production guidance for 2025 is approximately 7.5 million tonnes (Methanex interest), which excludes any incremental production from OCI assets post-acquisition closing date. In 2025, production will be impacted by three turnarounds occurring in the first three quarters of 2025. Actual production may vary by quarter based on gas availability, turnarounds, unplanned outages and unanticipated events. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 10
Upcoming dividend of US$0.18 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 17 December 2024. Payment date: 31 December 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 33% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.6%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (6.3%). Lower than average of industry peers (4.1%). Announcement • Nov 27
Methanex Corporation to Report Q4, 2024 Results on Jan 29, 2025 Methanex Corporation announced that they will report Q4, 2024 results at 5:00 PM, US Eastern Standard Time on Jan 29, 2025 Declared Dividend • Nov 22
Third quarter dividend of US$0.18 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.18. Ex-date: 17th December 2024 Payment date: 31st December 2024 Dividend yield will be 1.5%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (33% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (11% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to grow by 86% over the next 2 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Nov 20
Methanex Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend, Payable on December 31, 2024 Methanex Corporation announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly dividend of USD 0.185 per share. The dividend will be payable on December 31, 2024, to holders of common shares of record on December 17, 2024. Reported Earnings • Nov 12
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.46 (up from US$0.36 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: US$934.8m (up 14% from 3Q 2023). Net income: US$31.1m (up 28% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 3.3% (up from 2.9% in 3Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 8.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates significantly. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.1% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 35% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 2% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Nov 07
Methanex Corporation Provides Production Guidance for the Fourth Quarter 2024 Methanex Corporation provided production guidance for the fourth quarter 2024. The expected production guidance for Fourth Quarter 2024 is approximately 1.9 million tonnes (Methanex interest) which will be sold through in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 as produced sales normalize to the increased production. Announcement • Sep 10
Methanex Corporation (TSX:MX) entered into a definitive agreement to acquire OCI Methanol group from OCI N.V. (ENXTAM:OCI), Alpha Dhabi Holding PJSC (ADX:ALPHADHABI) and Abu Dhabi Developmental Holding Company PJSC for $2.02 billion. Methanex Corporation (TSX:MX) entered into a definitive agreement to acquire OCI Methanol group from OCI N.V. (ENXTAM:OCI), Alpha Dhabi Holding PJSC (ADX:ALPHADHABI) and Abu Dhabi Developmental Holding Company PJSC for $2.02 billion on September 8, 2024. A cash consideration of $1.15 billion will be paid by Methanex Corporation, 9.9 million common equity of Methanex Corporation to be issued and and the assumption of $450 million in debt and leases. Purchase price consideration of $2.05 billion on a cash-free and debt-free basis following a competitive process. OCI is expected to become an approximately 13% shareholder, and the second largest shareholder in Methanex following the Transaction. Acquisition expected to be immediately accretive to free cash flow per share. The transaction reflects TEV/EBITDA multiple of 7.5x. Methanex intends to fund the cash consideration of the transaction through a combination of cash on hand and new debt issuance. The Company has obtained a fully committed debt financing package from Royal Bank of Canada to support the transaction. Proceeds from the Transaction will be prioritized to significantly reduce OCI holding company gross debt and to return capital to shareholders. OCI holds 85% stake, and Alpha Dhabi Holding and ADQ holds 15% stake in OCI Methanol.
The Transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2025 subject to satisfaction of certain regulatory approvals, customary closing conditions, and other closing conditions including TSX approval for the issuance of Methanex shares to OCI and receipt of OCI shareholder approval. The transaction has been approved by the boards of directors of both companies. An agreement to vote for the Transaction has been signed by the largest shareholder of OCI with an interest of approximately 39% in the Company.
Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc is serving as financial advisor and A&O Shearman is acting as legal advisor to OCI. Methanex’s financial advisors for the transaction were Deutsche Bank and RBC Capital Markets. McCarthy Tétrault LLP, Baker McKenzie LLP, Loyens & Loeff N.V. and Reed Smith LLP acted as legal counsel for Methanex. Deutsche Bank and RBC Capital Markets provided fairness opinions to Methanex’s Board of Directors. Andrew Bab, Jennifer Chu of Debevoise & Plimpton LLP represented Deutsche Bank as financial advisor to Methanex Corporation. Announcement • Sep 04
Methanex Corporation to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Nov 06, 2024 Methanex Corporation announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Nov 06, 2024 Announcement • Aug 13
Methanex Corporation Announces to Temporarily Idle New Zealand Operations to Assist in Improving Energy Balances Methanex Corporation announced that it has entered into short-term commercial arrangements to provide its contracted natural gas into the New Zealand electricity market. As a result, it is temporarily idling its manufacturing operations in New Zealand until the end of October 2024. These commercial arrangements are expected to positively impact Methanex’s Third Quarter and Fourth Quarter 2024 earnings with after-tax proceeds expected to meaningfully exceed the margin lost on New Zealand methanol production delivered to customers. The commercial arrangements are structured to provide Methanex with a base price for each unit of gas delivered with further incremental value shared between the parties depending on electricity pricing over the period. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 07
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17% After last week's 17% share price decline to CA$55.93, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Chemicals industry in Canada. Total returns to shareholders of 35% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CA$23.51 per share. Reported Earnings • Jul 31
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.52 (down from US$0.84 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: US$920.4m (down 2.0% from 2Q 2023). Net income: US$35.2m (down 38% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 3.8% (down from 6.0% in 2Q 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 44%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.0% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 19% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 16% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Declared Dividend • Jul 22
First quarter dividend of US$0.18 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.18. Ex-date: 16th September 2024 Payment date: 30th September 2024 Dividend yield will be 1.4%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (30% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (23% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to remain steady over the next year, which should provide adequate earnings cover for the dividend. Announcement • Jul 19
Methanex Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend, Payable on September 30, 2024 Methanex Corporation announced that its board of directors has declared a quarterly dividend of USD 0.185 per share. The dividend will be payable on September 30, 2024, to holders of common shares of record on September 16, 2024. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 07
Upcoming dividend of US$0.18 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 14 June 2024. Payment date: 28 June 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 30% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.5%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (6.3%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.7%). Announcement • May 29
Methanex Corporation to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Jul 30, 2024 Methanex Corporation announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results at 5:00 PM, US Eastern Standard Time on Jul 30, 2024 Declared Dividend • May 20
First quarter dividend of US$0.18 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.18. Ex-date: 14th June 2024 Payment date: 28th June 2024 Dividend yield will be 1.3%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (30% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (23% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to remain steady over the next year, which should provide adequate earnings cover for the dividend. Announcement • Apr 27
Methanex Corporation Approves Appointment of Roger Perreault to its Board of Directors Methanex Corporation announced at annual general meeting held on April 25, 2024, the shareholders elected Roger Perreault as Director. The company announced the appointment of Roger Perreault to its Board of Directors effective April 25, 2024. Mr. Perreault served most recently at UGI Corporation from 2015 until 2023 and held the roles of President & Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President of Global LPG, and Vice President of UGI International. Prior to this, he worked at Air Liquide for over 22 years in a variety of increasingly senior global management roles. Mr. Perreault holds a Bachelor of Science in Chemical Engineering from Toronto Metropolitan University (formerly known as Ryerson University), a Graduate Diploma of Management (Applied) from McGill University and has completed the International Development Program and the Advanced Management Program at INSEAD. Announcement • Mar 07
Methanex Corporation to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 24, 2024 Methanex Corporation announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results at 5:00 PM, US Eastern Standard Time on Apr 24, 2024 Announcement • Feb 21
Methanex Corporation Provides Update on Geismar 3 Methanol Plant in Geismar, Louisiana Methanex Corporation announced that commercial production of its new 1.8 million tonne methanol plant, Geismar 3 (G3), in Geismar, Louisiana has been delayed due to complications that occurred in the autothermal reformer (ATR) during the late stages of the initial start-up process. This issue required the ATR to be cooled and brought to a safe state where teams could conduct detailed inspections of the vessel. Upon completing initial inspections, it has been determined that there is significant damage to a large number of supporting refractory bricks in the vessel which will require replacement. The specialty formed refractory bricks require time to procure and, as a result, management believes commercial production could be delayed up to the end of the third quarter of 2024. The investigation and planning to rectify the issue is ongoing and management is exploring all avenues to accelerate the repair time. Based on the preliminary findings of its root cause analysis, management believes that this issue relates to complications in the initial start-up process and is not a plant design or construction issue. Management believes that the total capital cost will not significantly exceed the upper end of the capital cost guidance of $1.30 billion. Announcement • Feb 02
Methanex Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend, Payable on March 28, 2024 Methanex Corporation announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly dividend of USD 0.185 per share. The dividend will be payable on March 28, 2024, to holders of common shares of record on March 14, 2024. Announcement • Nov 28
Methanex Corporation to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Jan 31, 2024 Methanex Corporation announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results at 5:00 PM, US Eastern Standard Time on Jan 31, 2024 Announcement • Nov 23
Methanex Corporation Provides Update on Egypt Operations Methanex Corporation announced that its 1.26 million tonne Egypt methanol production facility (Methanex 50% equity interest of 0.63 million tonnes per annum) was impacted by an unplanned outage in mid-October caused by a mechanical failure in the synthesis gas compressor. The unit has since been removed from service and is currently being repaired on an expedited schedule at the manufacturer overseas. The Company currently estimates that production will resume towards the end of the first quarter of 2024. Announcement • Nov 17
Methanex Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend, Payable on December 29, 2023 Methanex Corporation announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.185 per share. The dividend will be payable on December 29, 2023, to holders of common shares of record on December 15, 2023. 
