Methanex (TSE:MX) May Have Issues Allocating Its Capital

If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Typically, we'll want to notice a trend of growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and alongside that, an expanding base of capital employed. This shows us that it's a compounding machine, able to continually reinvest its earnings back into the business and generate higher returns. Having said that, from a first glance at Methanex (TSE:MX) we aren't jumping out of our chairs at how returns are trending, but let's have a deeper look.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Methanex, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.048 = US$248m ÷ (US$6.4b - US$1.2b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

Therefore, Methanex has an ROCE of 4.8%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Chemicals industry average of 7.6%.

Check out our latest analysis for Methanex

In the above chart we have measured Methanex's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Methanex .

What Can We Tell From Methanex's ROCE Trend?

When we looked at the ROCE trend at Methanex, we didn't gain much confidence. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 17%, but since then they've fallen to 4.8%. Given the business is employing more capital while revenue has slipped, this is a bit concerning. This could mean that the business is losing its competitive advantage or market share, because while more money is being put into ventures, it's actually producing a lower return - "less bang for their buck" per se.

In Conclusion...

We're a bit apprehensive about Methanex because despite more capital being deployed in the business, returns on that capital and sales have both fallen. In spite of that, the stock has delivered a 28% return to shareholders who held over the last five years. Either way, we aren't huge fans of the current trends and so with that we think you might find better investments elsewhere.

If you'd like to know about the risks facing Methanex, we've discovered 3 warning signs that you should be aware of.

For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.