These 4 Measures Indicate That Methanex (TSE:MX) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Methanex Corporation (TSE:MX) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Methanex

What Is Methanex's Net Debt?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Methanex had US$2.13b in debt in September 2024; about the same as the year before. On the flip side, it has US$511.1m in cash leading to net debt of about US$1.62b.

How Healthy Is Methanex's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Methanex had liabilities of US$1.26b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$2.92b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$511.1m and US$682.1m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$2.98b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of US$3.35b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Methanex's debt is 2.8 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 6.1 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. If Methanex can keep growing EBIT at last year's rate of 17% over the last year, then it will find its debt load easier to manage. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Methanex can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Methanex generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 84% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.

Our View

When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Methanex was the fact that it seems able to convert EBIT to free cash flow confidently. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. For example, its level of total liabilities makes us a little nervous about its debt. Considering this range of data points, we think Methanex is in a good position to manage its debt levels. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 2 warning signs with Methanex , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.