Is Mandalay Resources (TSE:MND) A Risky Investment?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Mandalay Resources Corporation (TSE:MND) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

See our latest analysis for Mandalay Resources

What Is Mandalay Resources's Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Mandalay Resources had US$54.6m of debt in March 2021, down from US$72.6m, one year before. However, it does have US$29.9m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$24.7m.

How Healthy Is Mandalay Resources' Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Mandalay Resources had liabilities of US$64.8m due within a year, and liabilities of US$78.7m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$29.9m and US$22.8m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$90.8m.

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Mandalay Resources has a market capitalization of US$201.8m, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Mandalay Resources's net debt is only 0.25 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 12.6 times over. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. Even more impressive was the fact that Mandalay Resources grew its EBIT by 2,339% over twelve months. If maintained that growth will make the debt even more manageable in the years ahead. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Mandalay Resources's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last two years, Mandalay Resources recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.

Our View

Both Mandalay Resources's ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT and its EBIT growth rate gave us comfort that it can handle its debt. But truth be told its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow had us nibbling our nails. Considering this range of data points, we think Mandalay Resources is in a good position to manage its debt levels. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Mandalay Resources you should know about.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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