Are Lundin Mining Corporation's (TSE:LUN) Mixed Financials Driving The Negative Sentiment?

Lundin Mining (TSE:LUN) has had a rough three months with its share price down 13%. It is possible that the markets have ignored the company's differing financials and decided to lean-in to the negative sentiment. Stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financial performance over the long term, and therefore we decided to pay more attention to the company's financial performance. Specifically, we decided to study Lundin Mining's ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

See our latest analysis for Lundin Mining

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Lundin Mining is:

6.7% = US$410m ÷ US$6.2b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each CA$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made CA$0.07 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Lundin Mining's Earnings Growth And 6.7% ROE

At first glance, Lundin Mining's ROE doesn't look very promising. We then compared the company's ROE to the broader industry and were disappointed to see that the ROE is lower than the industry average of 8.9%. Although, we can see that Lundin Mining saw a modest net income growth of 6.3% over the past five years. So, there might be other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Lundin Mining's reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 24% over the last few years, which is not something we like to see.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is Lundin Mining fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Lundin Mining Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

The high three-year median payout ratio of 60% (or a retention ratio of 40%) for Lundin Mining suggests that the company's growth wasn't really hampered despite it returning most of its income to its shareholders.

Besides, Lundin Mining has been paying dividends over a period of eight years. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 25% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected drop in the payout ratio explains the expected increase in the company's ROE to 12%, over the same period.

Conclusion

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Lundin Mining can be open to many interpretations. Although the company has shown a fair bit of growth in earnings, the reinvestment rate is low. Meaning, the earnings growth number could have been significantly higher had the company been retaining more of its profits and reinvesting that at a higher rate of return. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings are expected to accelerate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.