We Think Kinross Gold (TSE:K) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Kinross Gold Corporation (TSE:K) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Kinross Gold

How Much Debt Does Kinross Gold Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2020 Kinross Gold had debt of US$1.92b, up from US$1.84b in one year. On the flip side, it has US$1.00b in cash leading to net debt of about US$921.5m.

How Strong Is Kinross Gold's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Kinross Gold had liabilities of US$1.32b due within a year, and liabilities of US$2.81b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$1.00b in cash and US$210.4m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$2.92b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This deficit isn't so bad because Kinross Gold is worth US$9.04b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Kinross Gold has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.48. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 15.6 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Better yet, Kinross Gold grew its EBIT by 209% last year, which is an impressive improvement. That boost will make it even easier to pay down debt going forward. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Kinross Gold can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. In the last three years, Kinross Gold's free cash flow amounted to 30% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.

Our View

Happily, Kinross Gold's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. But truth be told we feel its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow does undermine this impression a bit. Taking all this data into account, it seems to us that Kinross Gold takes a pretty sensible approach to debt. That means they are taking on a bit more risk, in the hope of boosting shareholder returns. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Kinross Gold .

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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