Kinross Gold Corporation Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

A week ago, Kinross Gold Corporation (TSE:K) came out with a strong set of third-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 8.8% to hit US$1.4b. Kinross Gold also reported a statutory profit of US$0.29, which was an impressive 41% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Kinross Gold

Following the latest results, Kinross Gold's ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$5.29b in 2025. This would be a solid 9.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 29% to US$0.77. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$5.05b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.73 in 2025. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of CA$16.61, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Kinross Gold analyst has a price target of CA$19.91 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$8.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Kinross Gold's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 7.3% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.5% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 16% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Kinross Gold is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Kinross Gold's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Kinross Gold. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Kinross Gold going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Kinross Gold is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.