Stock Analysis

Here's Why I Think Jaguar Mining (TSE:JAG) Is An Interesting Stock

TSX:JAG
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For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to investors, even if it completely lacks a track record of revenue and profit. But as Peter Lynch said in One Up On Wall Street, 'Long shots almost never pay off.'

In contrast to all that, I prefer to spend time on companies like Jaguar Mining (TSE:JAG), which has not only revenues, but also profits. While that doesn't make the shares worth buying at any price, you can't deny that successful capitalism requires profit, eventually. While a well funded company may sustain losses for years, unless its owners have an endless appetite for subsidizing the customer, it will need to generate a profit eventually, or else breathe its last breath.

See our latest analysis for Jaguar Mining

How Fast Is Jaguar Mining Growing Its Earnings Per Share?

In a capitalist society capital chases profits, and that means share prices tend rise with earnings per share (EPS). So like the hint of a smile on a face that I love, growing EPS generally makes me look twice. You can imagine, then, that it almost knocked my socks off when I realized that Jaguar Mining grew its EPS from US$0.22 to US$0.91, in one short year. When you see earnings grow that quickly, it often means good things ahead for the company. But the key is discerning whether something profound has changed, or if this is a just a one-off boost.

Careful consideration of revenue growth and earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margins can help inform a view on the sustainability of the recent profit growth. Jaguar Mining shareholders can take confidence from the fact that EBIT margins are up from 15% to 49%, and revenue is growing. That's great to see, on both counts.

You can take a look at the company's revenue and earnings growth trend, in the chart below. Click on the chart to see the exact numbers.

earnings-and-revenue-history
TSX:JAG Earnings and Revenue History June 18th 2021

While it's always good to see growing profits, you should always remember that a weak balance sheet could come back to bite. So check Jaguar Mining's balance sheet strength, before getting too excited.

Are Jaguar Mining Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

Like standing at the lookout, surveying the horizon at sunrise, insider buying, for some investors, sparks joy. This view is based on the possibility that stock purchases signal bullishness on behalf of the buyer. However, insiders are sometimes wrong, and we don't know the exact thinking behind their acquisitions.

It's good to see Jaguar Mining insiders walking the walk, by spending US$338k on shares in just twelve months. When you contrast that with the complete lack of sales, it's easy for shareholders to brim with joyful expectancy. It is also worth noting that it was Chief Financial Officer Hashim Ahmed who made the biggest single purchase, worth CA$265k, paying CA$7.04 per share.

On top of the insider buying, we can also see that Jaguar Mining insiders own a large chunk of the company. In fact, they own 49% of the shares, making insiders a very influential shareholder group. I'm always comforted by solid insider ownership like this, as it implies that those running the business are genuinely motivated to create shareholder value. With that sort of holding, insiders have about US$208m riding on the stock, at current prices. That's nothing to sneeze at!

While insiders are apparently happy to hold and accumulate shares, that is just part of the pretty picture. That's because on our analysis the CEO, Vern Baker, is paid less than the median for similar sized companies. For companies with market capitalizations between US$200m and US$800m, like Jaguar Mining, the median CEO pay is around US$814k.

Jaguar Mining offered total compensation worth US$489k to its CEO in the year to . That seems pretty reasonable, especially given its below the median for similar sized companies. CEO compensation is hardly the most important aspect of a company to consider, but when its reasonable that does give me a little more confidence that leadership are looking out for shareholder interests. It can also be a sign of a culture of integrity, in a broader sense.

Should You Add Jaguar Mining To Your Watchlist?

Jaguar Mining's earnings per share have taken off like a rocket aimed right at the moon. Just as heartening; insiders both own and are buying more stock. Because of the potential that it has reached an inflection point, I'd suggest Jaguar Mining belongs on the top of your watchlist. We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Jaguar Mining that you need to be mindful of.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. So if you like the sound of Jaguar Mining, you'll probably love this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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