Ero Copper Corp. Just Recorded A 397% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

It's been a pretty great week for Ero Copper Corp. (TSE:ERO) shareholders, with its shares surging 13% to CA$19.46 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$120m fell slightly short of expectations, but earnings were a definite bright spot, with statutory per-share profits of US$0.74 an impressive 397% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the latest results, Ero Copper's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$828.5m in 2025. This would be a major 69% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 1,080% to US$2.15. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$840.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.97 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Ero Copper's earnings potential following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Ero Copper

The consensus price target was unchanged at CA$24.46, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ero Copper at CA$34.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$18.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Ero Copper's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 102% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.2% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 15% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Ero Copper is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Ero Copper following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ero Copper going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Ero Copper that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.