Endeavour Mining plc Just Beat EPS By 55%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Endeavour Mining plc (TSE:EDV) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$539m, some 2.8% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.24, 55% ahead of expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Endeavour Mining after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Endeavour Mining

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the twelve analysts covering Endeavour Mining, is for revenues of US$2.30b in 2024. This implies a discernible 7.4% reduction in Endeavour Mining's revenue over the past 12 months. Endeavour Mining is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$1.67 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.29b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.70 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of CA$40.15, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Endeavour Mining, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$47.00 and the most bearish at CA$32.70 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 5.9% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 29% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 14% per year. It's pretty clear that Endeavour Mining's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Endeavour Mining's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$40.15, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Endeavour Mining going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Endeavour Mining you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.