Centerra Gold (TSX:CG): Is There More Upside After Strong Earnings, Dividends, and Share Buybacks?

Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) delivered a strong set of third quarter results, with sales and net income both up sharply over the previous year. The company also announced a fresh quarterly dividend and provided details on its share buyback plan.

See our latest analysis for Centerra Gold.

The surge in net income, steady dividends, and accelerating share buybacks have captured the market’s attention. Centerra Gold’s 1-year total shareholder return has rocketed 93%, with momentum building rapidly as the share price climbed 95% so far this year. After some leadership changes and a clear push to return value, sentiment around the stock has shifted from cautious to distinctly optimistic.

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With results like these, the question now is whether Centerra Gold’s impressive rally still leaves room for further upside, or if recent gains mean future growth is already fully reflected in the share price.

Most Popular Narrative: 10% Undervalued

Centerra Gold’s widely followed narrative sets a fair value that is about 10% above the last close price, suggesting that the stock could have room to run. This appraisal combines projected earnings gains, margin improvement, and a robust gold market backdrop.

The company's ongoing focus on operational efficiency and cost management, exemplified by mine-to-mill integration and targeted capex on process upgrades, aim to mitigate industry cost inflation and reinforce net margins even as all-in sustaining costs rise sector-wide.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what bold assumptions drive that fair value? The answer can be found in the earnings blueprint and margin uplift that underpin this narrative. Only the full narrative reveals which operational upgrades, margin levers, and cost controls take priority in the bulls’ playbook. Ready to find out what they are?

Result: Fair Value of $18.41 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, risks remain, such as operational setbacks at Mount Milligan or persistent cost inflation. Either of these could quickly undermine today’s upbeat outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Centerra Gold narrative.

Build Your Own Centerra Gold Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig deeper into the numbers yourself, creating your own view takes just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Centerra Gold research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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