Canfor Corporation (TSE:CFP) Shares Could Be 40% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Canfor is CA$30.95 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Canfor's CA$18.61 share price signals that it might be 40% undervalued
• Our fair value estimate is 3.7% higher than Canfor's analyst price target of CA$29.83

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Canfor Corporation (TSE:CFP) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Canfor

Crunching The Numbers

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (CA$, Millions)	-CA$2.42m	CA$314.0m	CA$520.0m	CA$416.0m	CA$358.8m	CA$326.2m	CA$307.3m	CA$296.5m	CA$290.9m	CA$288.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ -13.76%	Est @ -9.08%	Est @ -5.79%	Est @ -3.50%	Est @ -1.89%	Est @ -0.77%
Present Value (CA$, Millions) Discounted @ 9.0%	-CA$2.2	CA$264	CA$402	CA$295	CA$233	CA$195	CA$168	CA$149	CA$134	CA$122

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CA$2.0b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CA$289m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (9.0%– 1.9%) = CA$4.1b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CA$4.1b÷ ( 1 + 9.0%)¹⁰= CA$1.7b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CA$3.7b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CA$18.6, the company appears quite undervalued at a 40% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Canfor as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.424. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Canfor, there are three important aspects you should further examine:

1. Financial Health: Does CFP have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
2. Future Earnings: How does CFP's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.