Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Canfor Corporation's (TSE:CFP) Full-Year Report

Canfor Corporation (TSE:CFP) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.5% to CA$16.11 in the week after its latest annual results. Revenues came in at CA$5.4b, in line with expectations, while statutory losses per share were substantially higher than expected, at CA$2.71 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Canfor

After the latest results, the six analysts covering Canfor are now predicting revenues of CA$5.59b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a modest 3.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 71% to CA$0.79. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of CA$5.72b and CA$0.052 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a regrettable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of CA$23.00, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Canfor analyst has a price target of CA$25.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$22.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Canfor is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Canfor's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 7.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Canfor is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Canfor. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Canfor going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Canfor Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.