Aris Mining (TSX:ARIS) Valuation: After Record Earnings, Gold Targets, and Analyst Upgrades, What’s Priced In?

Aris Mining (TSX:ARIS) has caught investor attention following its record earnings results, ambitious gold production targets, and a wave of improved analyst sentiment. This comes amid rising gold prices and strengthened financials.

See our latest analysis for Aris Mining.

Aris Mining’s momentum has truly accelerated, with the share price up a remarkable 202.85% year-to-date. Even with some recent volatility sparked by a major shareholder's exit, the company’s 1-year total shareholder return of 184.97% and outstanding multi-year gains are clear signals that investor confidence is strong as Aris delivers on gold output, earnings, and stability.

If Aris Mining’s recent surge has you curious about what else is moving, this could be the right moment to broaden your horizons and uncover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares more than doubling this year and analysts boosting their outlook, the question now is whether Aris Mining remains undervalued, or if the market has already factored in the company’s next stage of growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 32% Undervalued

Aris Mining’s most popular narrative sets a fair value that is substantially higher than the last close of CA$15.93, which suggests that bullish projections and ambitious growth targets play a significant role in this perspective.

The ongoing expansion at the Segovia operations, with the new second ball mill increasing processing capacity by 50% and a targeted production ramp-up to 300,000 ounces in 2026, is set to drive sustained revenue growth and structurally higher operating margins as fixed costs are leveraged over larger output.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the numbers behind this sky-high valuation? Analysts are betting on bold revenue acceleration, explosive margin expansion, and a future profit multiple that few would expect. See exactly which assumptions drive these expectations and explore the real story beneath the headline figures.

Result: Fair Value of $23.57 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained gold price volatility or unexpected regulatory hurdles in Colombia could create challenges for Aris Mining’s ambitious growth story and put pressure on future returns.

Find out about the key risks to this Aris Mining narrative.

Build Your Own Aris Mining Narrative

If the current outlook doesn't match your perspective or you want to dive deeper into the figures, you can craft a personalized view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Aris Mining research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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