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Argonaut Gold Valuation

Is AR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AR (CA$0.51) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$1.39)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AR?

Key metric: As AR is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AR. This is calculated by dividing AR's market cap by their current revenue.
What is AR's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	1.2x
Sales	US$407.20m
Market Cap	US$474.74m

AR key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	19.6x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AR's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	1.6x
AAUC Allied Gold	0.9x	23.5%	CA$1.0b
ORA Aura Minerals	1.5x	14.8%	CA$1.2b
ARIS Aris Mining	1.4x	24.9%	CA$952.0m
RBX Robex Resources	2.6x	40.9%	CA$378.6m
AR Argonaut Gold	1.2x	7.4%	CA$647.2m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AR is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.2x) compared to the peer average (1.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AR's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Metals and Mining Industry?

86 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	2.8x	16.6%
AR Argonaut Gold	1.2x	7.4%	US$474.74m
TECK.B Teck Resources	1.9x	-10.3%	US$23.21b
LUN Lundin Mining	1.8x	4.9%	US$7.41b

86 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	2.8x	40.9%
AR Argonaut Gold	1.2x	111.8%	US$474.74m

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AR is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.2x) compared to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average (3.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AR's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AR PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	1.2x
Fair PS Ratio	1.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AR is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	n/a	CA$0.53 0%	30.3%	CA$0.76	CA$0.40	n/a	3
Nov ’25	n/a	CA$0.53 0%	30.3%	CA$0.76	CA$0.40	n/a	3
Oct ’25	n/a	CA$0.53 0%	30.3%	CA$0.76	CA$0.40	n/a	3
Sep ’25	n/a	CA$0.53 0%	30.3%	CA$0.76	CA$0.40	n/a	3
Aug ’25	n/a	CA$0.53 0%	30.3%	CA$0.76	CA$0.40	n/a	3
Jul ’25	CA$0.43	CA$0.53 +24.3%	30.3%	CA$0.76	CA$0.40	n/a	3
Jun ’25	CA$0.45	CA$0.53 +18.4%	30.2%	CA$0.76	CA$0.40	n/a	3
May ’25	CA$0.42	CA$0.53 +27.0%	30.2%	CA$0.76	CA$0.40	n/a	3
Apr ’25	CA$0.39	CA$0.52 +33.8%	30.5%	CA$0.75	CA$0.35	n/a	4
Mar ’25	CA$0.23	CA$0.77 +227.0%	38.4%	CA$1.22	CA$0.35	n/a	7
Feb ’25	CA$0.41	CA$0.91 +123.5%	21.8%	CA$1.21	CA$0.55	n/a	7
Jan ’25	CA$0.47	CA$0.89 +89.4%	22.9%	CA$1.21	CA$0.55	n/a	7
Dec ’24	CA$0.43	CA$0.93 +116.9%	19.7%	CA$1.24	CA$0.60	n/a	7
Nov ’24	CA$0.51	CA$1.04 +104.3%	10.6%	CA$1.28	CA$0.90	n/a	7
Oct ’24	CA$0.56	CA$1.02 +82.7%	10.0%	CA$1.26	CA$0.90	n/a	7
Sep ’24	CA$0.72	CA$0.98 +36.1%	13.7%	CA$1.26	CA$0.76	n/a	8
Aug ’24	CA$0.57	CA$0.97 +69.6%	13.5%	CA$1.23	CA$0.75	n/a	8
Jul ’24	CA$0.53	CA$0.97 +82.7%	13.4%	CA$1.23	CA$0.75	CA$0.43	8
Jun ’24	CA$0.60	CA$0.95 +59.0%	13.8%	CA$1.25	CA$0.75	CA$0.45	9
May ’24	CA$0.59	CA$0.96 +62.1%	16.3%	CA$1.25	CA$0.75	CA$0.42	6
Apr ’24	CA$0.63	CA$0.89 +40.5%	18.9%	CA$1.24	CA$0.65	CA$0.39	9
Mar ’24	CA$0.47	CA$0.95 +102.1%	21.0%	CA$1.28	CA$0.65	CA$0.23	9
Feb ’24	CA$0.72	CA$1.01 +39.9%	16.9%	CA$1.24	CA$0.65	CA$0.41	8
Jan ’24	CA$0.52	CA$1.04 +99.1%	29.3%	CA$1.53	CA$0.36	CA$0.47	9
Dec ’23	CA$0.41	CA$1.03 +148.9%	28.7%	CA$1.51	CA$0.35	CA$0.43	9
Nov ’23	CA$0.39	CA$1.25 +219.7%	43.4%	CA$2.64	CA$0.40	CA$0.51	10

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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