Andrew Peller Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of ADW.A when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

ADW.A (CA$3.98) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CA$9.32)

Is ADW.A undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ADW.A when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ADW.A (CA$3.98) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$9.32)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ADW.A is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ADW.A?

Key metric: As ADW.A is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for ADW.A. This is calculated by dividing ADW.A's market cap by their current revenue.
What is ADW.A's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.4x
Sales	CA$393.90m
Market Cap	CA$180.87m

ADW.A key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	11x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does ADW.A's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for ADW.A vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	1x
CSW.A Corby Spirit and Wine	1.5x	n/a	CA$359.7m
DWS Diamond Estates Wines & Spirits	0.5x	n/a	CA$14.4m
GURU GURU Organic Energy	1.6x	8.2%	CA$48.5m
HLF High Liner Foods	0.3x	5.5%	CA$448.2m
ADW.A Andrew Peller	0.4x	-0.6%	CA$180.9m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: ADW.A is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the peer average (1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does ADW.A's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Beverage Industry?

10 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

10 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: ADW.A is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the North American Beverage industry average (1.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ADW.A's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ADW.A PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.4x
Fair PS Ratio	0.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: ADW.A is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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