Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Lycos Energy Inc. (CVE:LCX) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
View our latest analysis for Lycos Energy
What Is Lycos Energy's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2024 Lycos Energy had CA$9.90m of debt, an increase on none, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CA$3.82m, its net debt is less, at about CA$6.08m.
A Look At Lycos Energy's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that Lycos Energy had liabilities of CA$46.8m due within a year, and liabilities of CA$44.8m falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CA$3.82m as well as receivables valued at CA$12.4m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CA$75.4m.
This deficit isn't so bad because Lycos Energy is worth CA$167.9m, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Lycos Energy's net debt is only 0.17 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 13.8 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. And we also note warmly that Lycos Energy grew its EBIT by 16% last year, making its debt load easier to handle. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Lycos Energy can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Lycos Energy burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
Lycos Energy's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered were considerably better. There's no doubt that its ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT is pretty flash. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Lycos Energy's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Lycos Energy (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSXV:LCX
Lycos Energy
A junior resource company, engages in the development and production of petroleum and natural gas in Western Canada.
Acceptable track record with mediocre balance sheet.