Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Altai Resources Inc. (CVE:ATI)

Key Insights

• Altai Resources' estimated fair value is CA$0.057 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• With CA$0.065 share price, Altai Resources appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Altai Resources Inc. (CVE:ATI) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Altai Resources

The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (CA$, Millions)	CA$62.0k	CA$95.0k	CA$130.9k	CA$166.3k	CA$198.6k	CA$226.6k	CA$250.3k	CA$269.9k	CA$286.2k	CA$299.8k
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 75.20%	Est @ 53.18%	Est @ 37.77%	Est @ 26.98%	Est @ 19.42%	Est @ 14.14%	Est @ 10.44%	Est @ 7.84%	Est @ 6.03%	Est @ 4.76%
Present Value (CA$, Millions) Discounted @ 8.5%	CA$0.06	CA$0.08	CA$0.1	CA$0.1	CA$0.1	CA$0.1	CA$0.1	CA$0.1	CA$0.1	CA$0.1

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CA$1.2m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.5%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CA$300k× (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (8.5%– 1.8%) = CA$4.6m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CA$4.6m÷ ( 1 + 8.5%)¹⁰= CA$2.0m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CA$3.2m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CA$0.07, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Altai Resources as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.127. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Altai Resources, we've compiled three essential items you should further research:

1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 4 warning signs for Altai Resources (3 are a bit concerning!) we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSXV every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.