Stock Analysis

Don't Buy Alvopetro Energy Ltd. (CVE:ALV) For Its Next Dividend Without Doing These Checks

TSXV:ALV
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Alvopetro Energy Ltd. (CVE:ALV) stock is about to trade ex-dividend in four days. The ex-dividend date occurs one day before the record date which is the day on which shareholders need to be on the company's books in order to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is important as the process of settlement involves two full business days. So if you miss that date, you would not show up on the company's books on the record date. Accordingly, Alvopetro Energy investors that purchase the stock on or after the 27th of September will not receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 15th of October.

The company's next dividend payment will be US$0.09 per share. Last year, in total, the company distributed US$0.36 to shareholders. Last year's total dividend payments show that Alvopetro Energy has a trailing yield of 9.5% on the current share price of CA$5.16. Dividends are a major contributor to investment returns for long term holders, but only if the dividend continues to be paid. We need to see whether the dividend is covered by earnings and if it's growing.

See our latest analysis for Alvopetro Energy

If a company pays out more in dividends than it earned, then the dividend might become unsustainable - hardly an ideal situation. Alvopetro Energy distributed an unsustainably high 129% of its profit as dividends to shareholders last year. Without more sustainable payment behaviour, the dividend looks precarious. Yet cash flow is typically more important than profit for assessing dividend sustainability, so we should always check if the company generated enough cash to afford its dividend. Alvopetro Energy paid out more free cash flow than it generated - 117%, to be precise - last year, which we think is concerningly high. It's hard to consistently pay out more cash than you generate without either borrowing or using company cash, so we'd wonder how the company justifies this payout level.

Alvopetro Energy does have a large net cash position on the balance sheet, which could fund large dividends for a time, if the company so chose. Still, smart investors know that it is better to assess dividends relative to the cash and profit generated by the business. Paying dividends out of cash on the balance sheet is not long-term sustainable.

As Alvopetro Energy's dividend was not well covered by either earnings or cash flow, we would be concerned that this dividend could be at risk over the long term.

Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

historic-dividend
TSXV:ALV Historic Dividend September 22nd 2024

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Companies with consistently growing earnings per share generally make the best dividend stocks, as they usually find it easier to grow dividends per share. Investors love dividends, so if earnings fall and the dividend is reduced, expect a stock to be sold off heavily at the same time. It's encouraging to see Alvopetro Energy has grown its earnings rapidly, up 51% a year for the past five years. Alvopetro Energy's dividend was not well covered by earnings, although at least its earnings per share are growing quickly. Fast-growing businesses normally need to reinvest most of their earnings in order to maintain growth, so we'd suspect that either earnings growth will slow or the dividend may not be increased for a while.

Many investors will assess a company's dividend performance by evaluating how much the dividend payments have changed over time. Since the start of our data, three years ago, Alvopetro Energy has lifted its dividend by approximately 14% a year on average. It's exciting to see that both earnings and dividends per share have grown rapidly over the past few years.

To Sum It Up

Should investors buy Alvopetro Energy for the upcoming dividend? While it's nice to see earnings per share growing, we're curious about how Alvopetro Energy intends to continue growing, or maintain the dividend in a downturn given that it's paying out such a high percentage of its earnings and cashflow. It's not the most attractive proposition from a dividend perspective, and we'd probably give this one a miss for now.

So if you're still interested in Alvopetro Energy despite it's poor dividend qualities, you should be well informed on some of the risks facing this stock. To help with this, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Alvopetro Energy that you should be aware of before investing in their shares.

If you're in the market for strong dividend payers, we recommend checking our selection of top dividend stocks.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.