Strong Q2 Results and Raised Outlook Might Change the Case for Investing in TC Energy (TSX:TRP)

• TC Energy Corporation recently reported strong second quarter 2025 results, boosted its full-year EBITDA outlook, and announced new major project milestones and continued dividend declarations.
• The company's ongoing commitment to capital efficiency and investment in core infrastructure projects underscores its resilience amid shifting North American energy demand.
• We’ll explore how TC Energy’s improved EBITDA guidance and successful project execution may shift its investment narrative and risk outlook.

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TC Energy Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in TC Energy, you typically need confidence in the company's ability to execute large-scale energy infrastructure projects while navigating regulatory and market risks. The recent earnings report, highlighted by a 12% growth in comparable EBITDA and a raised 2025 EBITDA outlook, supports optimism in project execution but does not materially shift the near-term catalyst of major project completions or the ongoing risk tied to project cost overruns and regulatory delays.

Of most relevance is TC Energy’s announcement that it expects to place approximately CA$8.5 billion of capital projects into service this year, tracking about 15% below budget. This achievement is central to the company’s current investment story, as the timely and cost-effective delivery of these projects shapes both earnings expectations and the perceived risk tied to its robust growth pipeline.

By contrast, investors should be aware that the continued risk of cost overruns and regulatory changes could impact future returns, especially as ...

Read the full narrative on TC Energy (it's free!)

TC Energy's narrative projects CA$16.7 billion revenue and CA$4.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 6.4% yearly revenue growth and a CA$0.1 billion decrease in earnings from the current CA$4.2 billion.

Uncover how TC Energy's forecasts yield a CA$72.86 fair value, a 9% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Eight different fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range widely from CA$25.39 to CA$72.86 per share. Against this backdrop, project execution remains a key factor shaping broader expectations for TC Energy’s future performance, consider how these varied viewpoints might reflect different assumptions about the company’s ability to deliver.

Explore 8 other fair value estimates on TC Energy - why the stock might be worth as much as 9% more than the current price!

Build Your Own TC Energy Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your TC Energy research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free TC Energy research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate TC Energy's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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