Tourmaline Oil Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of TOU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

TOU (CA$62.32) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CA$120)

Is TOU undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TOU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TOU (CA$62.32) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$120)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TOU is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TOU?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for TOU. This is calculated by dividing TOU's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is TOU's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CA$23.20b

TOU key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	5.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	7.4x
PEG Ratio	0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TOU's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TOU vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	11.8x
ARX ARC Resources	11.6x	13.3%	CA$13.8b
MEG MEG Energy	11.7x	-7.4%	CA$7.0b
SCR Strathcona Resources	10.5x	0.9%	CA$5.8b
CNQ Canadian Natural Resources	13.5x	2.6%	CA$104.1b
TOU Tourmaline Oil	15.7x	48.5%	CA$23.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TOU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.7x) compared to the peer average (11.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TOU's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	6.8%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	6.8%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TOU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.7x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TOU's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TOU PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	15.7x
Fair PE Ratio	23x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TOU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TOU forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CA$62.32	CA$77.10 +23.7%	7.2%	CA$93.00	CA$67.00	n/a	15
Oct ’25	CA$63.27	CA$76.93 +21.6%	7.3%	CA$93.00	CA$67.00	n/a	15
Sep ’25	CA$61.42	CA$78.07 +27.1%	5.9%	CA$93.00	CA$72.50	n/a	15
Aug ’25	CA$58.66	CA$77.69 +32.4%	5.7%	CA$90.00	CA$70.00	n/a	16
Jul ’25	CA$62.05	CA$77.63 +25.1%	6.0%	CA$90.00	CA$70.00	n/a	16
Jun ’25	CA$67.61	CA$77.50 +14.6%	5.9%	CA$90.00	CA$70.00	n/a	16
May ’25	CA$65.79	CA$77.34 +17.6%	6.0%	CA$90.00	CA$70.00	n/a	16
Apr ’25	CA$63.96	CA$76.63 +19.8%	6.4%	CA$90.00	CA$70.00	n/a	16
Mar ’25	CA$62.33	CA$77.84 +24.9%	6.5%	CA$90.00	CA$70.00	n/a	16
Feb ’25	CA$57.88	CA$79.09 +36.7%	6.1%	CA$90.00	CA$70.00	n/a	16
Jan ’25	CA$59.59	CA$83.03 +39.3%	7.6%	CA$100.00	CA$74.00	n/a	16
Dec ’24	CA$65.51	CA$84.34 +28.7%	6.7%	CA$100.00	CA$77.00	n/a	16
Nov ’24	CA$73.57	CA$83.72 +13.8%	7.5%	CA$100.00	CA$77.00	n/a	16
Oct ’24	CA$68.35	CA$81.53 +19.3%	8.7%	CA$100.00	CA$75.00	CA$63.27	15
Sep ’24	CA$70.87	CA$80.19 +13.1%	9.0%	CA$100.00	CA$71.00	CA$61.42	16
Aug ’24	CA$68.44	CA$79.00 +15.4%	10.0%	CA$100.00	CA$70.00	CA$58.66	16
Jul ’24	CA$62.42	CA$79.50 +27.4%	10.7%	CA$102.00	CA$70.00	CA$62.05	14
Jun ’24	CA$56.79	CA$79.71 +40.4%	11.3%	CA$102.00	CA$66.00	CA$67.61	14
May ’24	CA$60.81	CA$80.21 +31.9%	12.0%	CA$102.00	CA$65.00	CA$65.79	14
Apr ’24	CA$56.32	CA$85.36 +51.6%	13.0%	CA$112.00	CA$66.00	CA$63.96	14
Mar ’24	CA$62.33	CA$92.07 +47.7%	8.5%	CA$112.00	CA$80.00	CA$62.33	14
Feb ’24	CA$60.41	CA$92.43 +53.0%	8.2%	CA$112.00	CA$80.00	CA$57.88	14
Jan ’24	CA$68.32	CA$98.83 +44.7%	7.7%	CA$117.00	CA$89.00	CA$59.59	12
Dec ’23	CA$80.51	CA$98.92 +22.9%	7.7%	CA$117.00	CA$89.00	CA$65.51	12
Nov ’23	CA$77.55	CA$96.83 +24.9%	9.1%	CA$117.00	CA$85.00	CA$73.57	12
Oct ’23	CA$71.79	CA$96.58 +34.5%	9.1%	CA$116.00	CA$85.00	CA$68.35	12

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.