Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Journey Energy Inc. (TSE:JOY) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Journey Energy
How Much Debt Does Journey Energy Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Journey Energy had debt of CA$62.8m at the end of June 2024, a reduction from CA$73.6m over a year. On the flip side, it has CA$18.9m in cash leading to net debt of about CA$43.9m.
How Strong Is Journey Energy's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Journey Energy had liabilities of CA$75.0m due within 12 months, and liabilities of CA$202.9m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CA$18.9m as well as receivables valued at CA$22.6m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CA$236.5m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CA$136.2m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Journey Energy would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 0.65 and interest cover of 2.6 times, it seems to us that Journey Energy is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. So we'd recommend keeping a close eye on the impact financing costs are having on the business. Importantly, Journey Energy's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 50% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Journey Energy will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Journey Energy recorded free cash flow of 37% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
To be frank both Journey Energy's EBIT growth rate and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at managing its debt, based on its EBITDA,; that's encouraging. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Journey Energy has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Journey Energy you should be aware of.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSX:JOY
Journey Energy
Journey Energy Inc. is involved in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas in the province of Alberta, Canada.
Moderate growth potential with mediocre balance sheet.