What Gibson Energy (TSX:GEI)'s Long-Term Take-or-Pay Renewals and Texas Expansion Means For Shareholders

• In late November 2025, Gibson Energy Inc. renewed a 20-year take-or-pay refined products services agreement and extended a 10-year terminal storage contract with senior integrated oil sands customers at its Edmonton Terminal, while also approving a new U.S. infrastructure project in Texas to support growth.
• These long-duration, take-or-pay commitments and the Texas expansion highlight how anchored customer demand and incremental infrastructure can reinforce Gibson’s contracted midstream cash flow profile.
• Next, we’ll explore how these renewed long-term take-or-pay agreements could reshape Gibson Energy’s investment narrative and risk-reward balance.

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Gibson Energy Investment Narrative Recap

To own Gibson Energy, you need to believe in the resilience of North American crude and refined products flows and the value of long-term, contracted midstream cash flows. The renewed 20-year and extended 10-year take-or-pay agreements at Edmonton, plus the Texas project, directly support the key near-term catalyst of contracted infrastructure earnings, while only partially offsetting longer term risks tied to energy transition and regional concentration.

The recent Analyst/Investor Day on November 25, 2025 is particularly relevant here, as it framed Gibson’s long-term plan and capital priorities just before these Edmonton and Texas announcements. Together, the strategy update and fresh take-or-pay commitments give investors more visibility on how Gibson intends to balance growth projects, contract length, and customer quality with its existing risks around customer concentration and regional exposure.

Yet even with these long-term contracts in place, investors still need to consider how concentrated exposure to a handful of large oil sands customers could affect Gibson’s future if...

Read the full narrative on Gibson Energy (it's free!)

Gibson Energy's narrative projects CA$9.3 billion revenue and CA$301.2 million earnings by 2028. This assumes revenue will decline by 4.8% per year and requires an earnings increase of about CA$142 million from CA$159.0 million today.

Uncover how Gibson Energy's forecasts yield a CA$25.62 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Gibson Energy span a wide range, from CA$13.23 to CA$62.29, showing how differently private investors can view the same stock. When you set those views against Gibson’s reliance on long dated take-or-pay contracts with a concentrated group of oil sands customers, it underlines why you may want to compare multiple risk and return assumptions before forming your own view.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Gibson Energy - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Gibson Energy Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Gibson Energy research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Gibson Energy research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Gibson Energy's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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