Canadian Natural Resources Limited

TSX:CNQ Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$105.4b

Canadian Natural Resources Valuation

Is CNQ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CNQ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CNQ (CA$49.22) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$78.4)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CNQ is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CNQ?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

CNQ key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA6.9x
PEG Ratio9.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CNQ's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CNQ vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15x
TOU Tourmaline Oil
14.8x36.0%CA$22.0b
ARX ARC Resources
12.8x25.2%CA$15.0b
MEG MEG Energy
12.3x-6.7%CA$7.3b
VRN Veren
20.2x11.0%CA$6.1b
CNQ Canadian Natural Resources
13.6x1.4%CA$105.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CNQ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.6x) compared to the peer average (15x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CNQ's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a7.9%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a7.9%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CNQ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.6x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (11.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CNQ's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CNQ PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.6x
Fair PE Ratio12.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CNQ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CNQ forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$49.22
CA$56.05
+13.9%
7.6%CA$62.00CA$48.00n/a20
Aug ’25CA$48.48
CA$56.05
+15.6%
7.5%CA$62.00CA$47.00n/a20
Jul ’25CA$48.73
CA$55.78
+14.5%
7.1%CA$62.00CA$47.00n/a20
Jun ’25CA$52.35
CA$56.63
+8.2%
7.1%CA$63.00CA$47.00n/a20
May ’25CA$51.51
CA$55.39
+7.5%
8.6%CA$63.00CA$45.50n/a21
Apr ’25CA$52.35
CA$51.75
-1.1%
7.5%CA$60.00CA$45.00n/a21
Mar ’25CA$48.85
CA$49.75
+1.8%
6.2%CA$55.00CA$43.00n/a22
Feb ’25CA$42.24
CA$48.07
+13.8%
6.2%CA$52.50CA$43.00n/a22
Jan ’25CA$43.41
CA$48.61
+12.0%
5.6%CA$52.50CA$43.00n/a22
Dec ’24CA$45.82
CA$49.58
+8.2%
6.2%CA$57.00CA$45.00n/a22
Nov ’24CA$44.86
CA$48.93
+9.1%
6.3%CA$56.00CA$44.50n/a21
Oct ’24CA$43.92
CA$47.02
+7.1%
5.9%CA$52.50CA$43.00n/a21
Sep ’24CA$44.17
CA$45.86
+3.8%
4.6%CA$50.00CA$41.00n/a21
Aug ’24CA$40.45
CA$44.86
+10.9%
6.0%CA$50.00CA$40.00CA$48.4821
Jul ’24CA$37.24
CA$44.75
+20.2%
6.6%CA$50.00CA$40.00CA$48.7320
Jun ’24CA$36.91
CA$45.65
+23.7%
7.9%CA$52.50CA$40.00CA$52.3520
May ’24CA$40.80
CA$45.95
+12.6%
8.3%CA$55.00CA$40.00CA$51.5121
Apr ’24CA$37.40
CA$45.86
+22.6%
7.1%CA$52.50CA$40.00CA$52.3521
Mar ’24CA$39.38
CA$46.26
+17.5%
9.5%CA$59.00CA$38.00CA$48.8521
Feb ’24CA$39.35
CA$46.09
+17.1%
9.4%CA$59.00CA$38.00CA$42.2422
Jan ’24CA$37.60
CA$46.36
+23.3%
8.6%CA$59.00CA$40.00CA$43.4121
Dec ’23CA$40.17
CA$46.75
+16.4%
8.4%CA$59.00CA$40.00CA$45.8220
Nov ’23CA$41.12
CA$45.58
+10.8%
8.6%CA$59.00CA$39.00CA$44.8620
Oct ’23CA$32.15
CA$47.33
+47.2%
17.2%CA$78.50CA$37.50CA$43.9220
Sep ’23CA$35.46
CA$48.02
+35.4%
16.9%CA$78.50CA$37.50CA$44.1721
Aug ’23CA$35.36
CA$47.15
+33.4%
9.2%CA$59.00CA$41.00CA$40.4520

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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