Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ): Is the Recent 5% Climb Enough to Justify Its Current Valuation?

Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) recently caught the eye of market watchers after a period of steady gains. Investors are taking note as the stock climbed more than 5% over the past month.

See our latest analysis for Canadian Natural Resources.

This latest climb builds on momentum from earlier in the year, with Canadian Natural Resources showing a resilient 90-day share price return of over 10%. While last year’s total shareholder return was essentially flat, the long-term picture looks much brighter, thanks to a standout 321% total return over five years. Overall, the signals suggest investors are still betting on CNQ’s growth potential despite recent volatility.

If you’re ready to discover what else is outperforming in today’s market, now is a great opportunity to see which companies are making waves among fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares up and a five-year surge that stands out, the key question for investors is whether Canadian Natural Resources remains undervalued or if the recent run-up already reflects all future growth. Is this the right time to buy, or have markets gotten ahead of the story?

Most Popular Narrative: 13.6% Undervalued

Canadian Natural Resources last closed at CA$45.66, notably below what the most closely followed narrative considers its fair value. This sets the stage for a deeper look at the numbers driving its upside potential.

Recent accretive acquisitions have expanded production and reserves with minimal increase to the 2025 capital budget. This positions Canadian Natural for immediate cash flow growth and increased future revenues as these assets are developed.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know why analysts see more value ahead? One crucial assumption fuels this discounted valuation, and it is all about the company’s future profitability trajectory. There is tension around how aggressively those projected returns could boost earnings. Find out which key driver is tipping the scales in this valuation, only in the full narrative.

Result: Fair Value of $52.825 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent regulatory pressures and weaker oil prices could still threaten Canadian Natural Resources’ earnings outlook and undermine confidence in future profitability.

Find out about the key risks to this Canadian Natural Resources narrative.

Build Your Own Canadian Natural Resources Narrative

If you want to dig into the details and reach your own conclusions, you can create a personalized view of Canadian Natural’s story in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Canadian Natural Resources research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for Your Next Investment Opportunity?

Make your money work smarter by uncovering fresh opportunities you might not see anywhere else. Don’t let tomorrow’s winners pass you by—see what’s moving now.

• Unlock income potential and get ahead of the crowd with these 15 dividend stocks with yields > 3%, which highlights companies offering attractive yields above 3%.
• Seize the momentum behind tomorrow’s breakthroughs by scanning these 27 AI penny stocks, featuring stocks that are pushing the limits of artificial intelligence.
• Jump on undervalued gems before the market catches up using these 882 undervalued stocks based on cash flows, a tool focused on stocks trading below their cash flow potential.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com