Stock Analysis
- Canada
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- Oil and Gas
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- TSX:CNE
Even after rising 10% this past week, Canacol Energy (TSE:CNE) shareholders are still down 75% over the past five years
It is a pleasure to report that the Canacol Energy Ltd (TSE:CNE) is up 30% in the last quarter. But will that heal all the wounds inflicted over 5 years of declines? Unlikely. In fact, the share price has tumbled down a mountain to land 82% lower after that period. So we don't gain too much confidence from the recent recovery. The fundamental business performance will ultimately determine if the turnaround can be sustained. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.
Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last five years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.
See our latest analysis for Canacol Energy
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During five years of share price growth, Canacol Energy moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.
In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 6.4% a year in the five year period. So it seems one might have to take closer look at the fundamentals to understand why the share price languishes. After all, there may be an opportunity.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Canacol Energy has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling Canacol Energy stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Canacol Energy's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Canacol Energy's TSR of was a loss of 75% for the 5 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.
A Different Perspective
Canacol Energy shareholders are down 37% for the year, but the market itself is up 21%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 12% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Canacol Energy better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Canacol Energy you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.
We will like Canacol Energy better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSX:CNE
Canacol Energy
Operates as an oil and gas company in Colombia.