Cameco (TSX:CCO): Revisiting Valuation After a 65% Year-to-Date Surge in Uranium-Fueled Optimism

Cameco (TSX:CCO) has quietly extended its strong run, with shares up about 65% this year as uranium demand expectations shift. That move has investors revisiting how much future growth is already priced in.

See our latest analysis for Cameco.

At around CA$124 per share, Cameco’s year-to-date share price return of roughly 65 percent, backed by a powerful five-year total shareholder return above 600 percent, suggests momentum is still firmly on the front foot as uranium appetite and sentiment improve.

If Cameco’s surge has you rethinking your energy exposure, it might be worth exploring aerospace and defense stocks as another way to tap into long-duration demand tied to global security and infrastructure spending.

Yet with earnings rising, a solid value score, and analyst targets still pointing higher, investors face a crucial question: is Cameco still underappreciated, or is the market already baking in years of uranium growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 17.6% Undervalued

With Cameco last closing at around CA$124 versus a narrative fair value near CA$151, the story leans toward upside, hinging on long term nuclear build out.

Westinghouse (Cameco's 49% share) is poised for significant upside as dozens of planned gigawatt scale reactors in the US, Europe, and Asia reach final investment decision (FID). These builds are not yet in current business guidance, suggesting meaningful forward earnings and EBITDA improvement as project approvals materialize.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady but unspectacular revenue growth, surging margins, and a bold future earnings multiple can still argue for upside at today’s price? Read on.

Result: Fair Value of $150.81 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent project delays and operational hiccups at key mines could constrain volumes and margins. This may challenge today’s upbeat assumptions about Cameco’s upside.

Find out about the key risks to this Cameco narrative.

Another Way to Look at Value

On simple earnings metrics, Cameco looks far richer than the upbeat narrative implies. The stock trades at about 102.8 times earnings versus roughly 14.3 times for the Canadian Oil and Gas industry and about 15.5 times for peers, while our fair ratio sits closer to 20.6 times. That gap suggests expectations are stretched, leaving little room for earnings disappointment. Is the market paying too far in advance for future uranium upside?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Cameco Narrative

If you see the story differently or simply prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Cameco.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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