Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Baytex Energy Corp. (TSE:BTE) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today’s value. I will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
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We’re using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
|Levered FCF (CA$, Millions)||CA$270.14||CA$265.55||CA$264.00||CA$264.46||CA$266.33||CA$269.20||CA$272.80||CA$276.95||CA$281.52||CA$286.41|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x5||Analyst x4||Analyst x1||Est @ 0.17%||Est @ 0.71%||Est @ 1.08%||Est @ 1.34%||Est @ 1.52%||Est @ 1.65%||Est @ 1.74%|
|Present Value (CA$, Millions) Discounted @ 11.9%||CA$241.40||CA$212.06||CA$188.40||CA$168.65||CA$151.77||CA$137.09||CA$124.15||CA$112.63||CA$102.31||CA$93.02|
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= CA$1.53b
“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 1.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today’s value at a cost of equity of 11.9%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CA$286m × (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (11.9% – 1.9%) = CA$2.9b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = CA$CA$2.9b ÷ ( 1 + 11.9%)10 = CA$952.43m
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CA$2.48b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate of CA$4.46. Compared to the current share price of CA$2.7, the company appears quite undervalued at a 40% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company’s future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Baytex Energy as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 11.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.671. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For Baytex Energy, There are three further factors you should look at:
- Financial Health: Does BTE have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does BTE’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of BTE? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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