Athabasca Oil (TSE:ATH) Might Have The Makings Of A Multi-Bagger

If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for? One common approach is to try and find a company with returns on capital employed (ROCE) that are increasing, in conjunction with a growing amount of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. Speaking of which, we noticed some great changes in Athabasca Oil's (TSE:ATH) returns on capital, so let's have a look.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Athabasca Oil:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.11 = CA$154m ÷ (CA$1.8b - CA$470m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2022).

Therefore, Athabasca Oil has an ROCE of 11%. In absolute terms, that's a pretty standard return but compared to the Oil and Gas industry average it falls behind.

See our latest analysis for Athabasca Oil

In the above chart we have measured Athabasca Oil's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

The Trend Of ROCE

It's great to see that Athabasca Oil has started to generate some pre-tax earnings from prior investments. Historically the company was generating losses but as we can see from the latest figures referenced above, they're now earning 11% on their capital employed. In regards to capital employed, Athabasca Oil is using 43% less capital than it was five years ago, which on the surface, can indicate that the business has become more efficient at generating these returns. The reduction could indicate that the company is selling some assets, and considering returns are up, they appear to be selling the right ones.

On a side note, we noticed that the improvement in ROCE appears to be partly fueled by an increase in current liabilities. The current liabilities has increased to 26% of total assets, so the business is now more funded by the likes of its suppliers or short-term creditors. It's worth keeping an eye on this because as the percentage of current liabilities to total assets increases, some aspects of risk also increase.

In Conclusion...

From what we've seen above, Athabasca Oil has managed to increase it's returns on capital all the while reducing it's capital base. Since the stock has returned a staggering 189% to shareholders over the last five years, it looks like investors are recognizing these changes. So given the stock has proven it has promising trends, it's worth researching the company further to see if these trends are likely to persist.

One more thing: We've identified 2 warning signs with Athabasca Oil (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding them would certainly be useful.

While Athabasca Oil may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.