ARC Resources Ltd.'s (TSE:ARX) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.8x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in Canada, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 14x and even P/E's above 30x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.
While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, ARC Resources' earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to get any better. If you still like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
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In order to justify its P/E ratio, ARC Resources would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the market.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 56%. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 277% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the four analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 19% per year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to only expand by 9.6% per annum, which is noticeably less attractive.
In light of this, it's peculiar that ARC Resources' P/E sits below the majority of other companies. It looks like most investors are not convinced at all that the company can achieve future growth expectations.
The Final Word
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that ARC Resources currently trades on a much lower than expected P/E since its forecast growth is higher than the wider market. There could be some major unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the positive outlook. At least price risks look to be very low, but investors seem to think future earnings could see a lot of volatility.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with ARC Resources, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on ARC Resources, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About TSX:ARX
ARC Resources
Engages in the acquiring and developing crude oil, natural gas, condensate, and natural gas liquids in Canada.
Undervalued with adequate balance sheet.