Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (TSE:ATD) Just Released Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

As you might know, Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (TSE:ATD) recently reported its quarterly numbers. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$21b and statutory earnings per share of US$0.68. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Alimentation Couche-Tard

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Alimentation Couche-Tard's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$76.0b in 2026. This would reflect an okay 2.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 15% to US$3.14. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$76.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.21 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CA$87.33, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Alimentation Couche-Tard at CA$94.23 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$81.69. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Alimentation Couche-Tard is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Alimentation Couche-Tard's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.5% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Alimentation Couche-Tard.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Alimentation Couche-Tard. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Alimentation Couche-Tard's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Alimentation Couche-Tard going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Alimentation Couche-Tard , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.