Calian Group Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

As you might know, Calian Group Ltd. (TSE:CGY) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with CA$194m revenue coming in 3.3% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.02 missed the mark badly, arriving some 96% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Our free stock report includes 3 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Calian Group. Read for free now.

Following the latest results, Calian Group's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of CA$798.6m in 2025. This would be an okay 7.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 22,101% to CA$0.93. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CA$818.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$2.00 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Calian Group

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 16% to CA$57.43. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Calian Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$61.00 and the most bearish at CA$50.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Calian Group is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Calian Group'shistorical trends, as the 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 13% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 2.1% annually. So not only is Calian Group expected to maintain its revenue growth despite the wider downturn, it's also forecast to grow faster than the industry as a whole.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Calian Group. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates that is expected to perform better than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Calian Group's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Calian Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Calian Group is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.