Velan Inc.'s (TSE:VLN) Shares Climb 34% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Velan Inc. (TSE:VLN) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 34% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The last month tops off a massive increase of 180% in the last year.

Even after such a large jump in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Velan's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.6x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Canada's Machinery industry is similar at about 0.8x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

View our latest analysis for Velan

How Velan Has Been Performing

Velan certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing its revenue at a really rapid pace. The P/S is probably moderate because investors think this strong revenue growth might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. Those who are bullish on Velan will be hoping that this isn't the case, so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Velan's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Velan's Revenue Growth Trending?

Velan's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 30% last year. Although, its longer-term performance hasn't been as strong with three-year revenue growth being relatively non-existent overall. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 8.1% shows it's noticeably less attractive.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Velan's P/S is comparable to that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Velan's P/S is back within range of the industry median. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Velan's average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's hard to accept the current share price as fair value.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Velan has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit concerning) we think you should know about.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.