Stock Analysis

Did You Miss Home Capital Group's (TSE:HCG) 96% Share Price Gain?

TSX:HCG
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One simple way to benefit from the stock market is to buy an index fund. But if you choose individual stocks with prowess, you can make superior returns. Just take a look at Home Capital Group Inc. (TSE:HCG), which is up 96%, over three years, soundly beating the market return of 13% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 3.5% in the last year.

Check out our latest analysis for Home Capital Group

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During three years of share price growth, Home Capital Group achieved compound earnings per share growth of 94% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 25% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems investors have become more cautious about the company, over time. We'd venture the lowish P/E ratio of 10.98 also reflects the negative sentiment around the stock.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
TSX:HCG Earnings Per Share Growth February 18th 2021

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Home Capital Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

A Different Perspective

Home Capital Group shareholders are up 3.5% for the year. But that return falls short of the market. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 0.8% per year over five year. It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares - and the price they paid.

Home Capital Group is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.

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Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Home Capital Group might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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