Industry Analysts Just Upgraded Their Serena Energia S.A. (BVMF:SRNA3) Revenue Forecasts By 17%

Shareholders in Serena Energia S.A. (BVMF:SRNA3) may be thrilled to learn that the analysts have just delivered a major upgrade to their near-term forecasts. The analysts have sharply increased their revenue numbers, with a view that Serena Energia will make substantially more sales than they'd previously expected.

Following the latest upgrade, the current consensus, from the three analysts covering Serena Energia, is for revenues of R$2.8b in 2024, which would reflect a measurable 7.0% reduction in Serena Energia's sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 84% to R$0.19. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of R$2.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$0.19 in 2024. There's clearly been a surge in bullishness around the company's sales pipeline, even if there's no real change in earnings per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Serena Energia

It may not be a surprise to see that the analysts have reconfirmed their price target of R$13.15, implying that the uplift in sales is not expected to greatly contribute to Serena Energia's valuation in the near term.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 7.0% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 27% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 1.4% annually for the foreseeable future. The forecasts do look bearish for Serena Energia, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion from this consensus update is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with analysts holding earnings per share steady, in line with previous estimates. They also upgraded their revenue estimates, with sales apparently performing well even though revenue growth expected to decline against the wider market this year. Given that analysts appear to be expecting substantial improvement in the sales pipeline, now could be the right time to take another look at Serena Energia.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Serena Energia going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.