Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Eneva S.A. (BVMF:ENEV3) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
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What Is Eneva's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at December 2020 Eneva had debt of R$7.04b, up from R$5.56b in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of R$1.90b, its net debt is less, at about R$5.15b.
How Healthy Is Eneva's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Eneva had liabilities of R$1.07b falling due within a year, and liabilities of R$7.22b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had R$1.90b in cash and R$793.8m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total R$5.60b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Eneva has a market capitalization of R$21.3b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Eneva's debt is 3.4 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 3.8 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. On a lighter note, we note that Eneva grew its EBIT by 24% in the last year. If sustained, this growth should make that debt evaporate like a scarce drinking water during an unnaturally hot summer. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Eneva's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Eneva recorded free cash flow of 27% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Our View
On our analysis Eneva's EBIT growth rate should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For example, its net debt to EBITDA makes us a little nervous about its debt. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about Eneva's debt levels. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Eneva you should be aware of.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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About BOVESPA:ENEV3
Fair value very low.