While Americanas S.A. (BVMF:AMER3) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw significant share price movement during recent months on the BOVESPA, rising to highs of R$34.65 and falling to the lows of R$19.34. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Americanas' current trading price of R$19.34 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Americanas’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
What is Americanas worth?
Americanas is currently expensive based on my price multiple model, where I look at the company's price-to-earnings ratio in comparison to the industry average. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Americanas’s ratio of 30.53x is above its peer average of 20.18x, which suggests the stock is trading at a higher price compared to the Online Retail industry. If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Since Americanas’s share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
Can we expect growth from Americanas?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to more than double over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Americanas. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? AMER3’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading above industry price multiples. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe AMER3 should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on AMER3 for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for AMER3, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Be aware that Americanas is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis and 3 of those are a bit concerning...
If you are no longer interested in Americanas, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.