Hapvida Participações e Investimentos S.A. (BVMF:HAPV3) Just Reported Third-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Shareholders might have noticed that Hapvida Participações e Investimentos S.A. (BVMF:HAPV3) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.9% to R$3.17 in the past week. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at R$7.3b, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Hapvida Participações e Investimentos

After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Hapvida Participações e Investimentos are now predicting revenues of R$31.7b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a solid 10.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 1,835% to R$0.14. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of R$31.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$0.15 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at R$5.88, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hapvida Participações e Investimentos at R$7.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at R$5.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Hapvida Participações e Investimentos' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Hapvida Participações e Investimentos' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 33% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Hapvida Participações e Investimentos.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hapvida Participações e Investimentos. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at R$5.88, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Hapvida Participações e Investimentos analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Hapvida Participações e Investimentos you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.