David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that São Martinho S.A. (BVMF:SMTO3) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
View our latest analysis for São Martinho
What Is São Martinho's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at December 2022 São Martinho had debt of R$6.92b, up from R$5.01b in one year. On the flip side, it has R$2.69b in cash leading to net debt of about R$4.23b.
How Healthy Is São Martinho's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, São Martinho had liabilities of R$3.03b due within 12 months, and liabilities of R$10.0b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of R$2.69b as well as receivables valued at R$654.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by R$9.72b.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of R$13.4b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 1.4 and interest cover of 4.4 times, it seems to us that São Martinho is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. Importantly, São Martinho's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 44% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if São Martinho can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, São Martinho's free cash flow amounted to 45% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Our View
Mulling over São Martinho's attempt at (not) growing its EBIT, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But at least it's pretty decent at managing its debt, based on its EBITDA,; that's encouraging. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that São Martinho's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - São Martinho has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About BOVESPA:SMTO3
São Martinho
Engages in the production and sale of sugar, ethanol, and other sugarcane byproducts in Brazil.
Good value with adequate balance sheet and pays a dividend.