BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas (BOVESPA:AGRO3) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of AGRO3 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

AGRO3 (R$23.69) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (R$68.35)

AGRO3 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	3/6

AGRO3 Stock Overview

BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and sale of rural properties suitable for agricultural activities in Brazil.

Rewards

Trading at 65.3% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings grew by 1580.2% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 32.7% per year for the next 3 years

High level of non-cash earnings

Dividend of 8.51% is not well covered by earnings

BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas Competitors

Três Tentos Agroindustrial S/A

BOVESPA:TTEN3

R$4.0b

SLC Agrícola

BOVESPA:SLCE3

R$9.0b

Boa Safra Sementes

BOVESPA:SOJA3

R$1.3b

Jalles Machado S/A

BOVESPA:JALL3

R$2.2b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	R$23.69
52 Week High	R$35.09
52 Week Low	R$23.23
Beta	0.49
1 Month Change	-24.65%
3 Month Change	-30.93%
1 Year Change	-21.27%
3 Year Change	40.18%
5 Year Change	97.91%
Change since IPO	115.36%

Shareholder Returns

	AGRO3	BR Food	BR Market
7D	-8.4%	-1.9%	-2.0%
1Y	-21.3%	-8.2%	-29.6%

Return vs Industry: AGRO3 underperformed the BR Food industry which returned -10.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AGRO3 exceeded the BR Market which returned -30.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AGRO3's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AGRO3 volatility
AGRO3 Average Weekly Movement	5.2%
Food Industry Average Movement	5.3%
Market Average Movement	5.8%
10% most volatile stocks in BR Market	9.2%
10% least volatile stocks in BR Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: AGRO3 is not significantly more volatile than the rest of BR stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: AGRO3's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2005	n/a	André Guillaumon	https://www.brasil-agro.com

BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and sale of rural properties suitable for agricultural activities in Brazil. The company operates through six segments: Real Estate, Grains, Sugarcane, Cattle Raising, Cotton, and Other. It is involved in the cultivation of soybean, corn, sorghum, and cotton, as well as sugarcane; and production and sale of beef calves after weaning.

BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas Fundamentals Summary

How do BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AGRO3 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	R$2.35b
Earnings (TTM)	R$570.45m
Revenue (TTM)	R$1.35b

4.1x

P/E Ratio

1.7x

P/S Ratio

Is AGRO3 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
AGRO3 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	R$1.35b
Cost of Revenue	R$503.13m
Gross Profit	R$842.30m
Other Expenses	R$271.85m
Earnings	R$570.45m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Sep 01, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	5.75
Gross Margin	62.60%
Net Profit Margin	42.40%
Debt/Equity Ratio	17.8%

How did AGRO3 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

8.5%

Current Dividend Yield

79%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is AGRO3 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AGRO3?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for AGRO3. This is calculated by dividing AGRO3's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is AGRO3's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	R$2.35b

AGRO3 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	2.9x
PEG Ratio	-0.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AGRO3's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

AGRO3 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for AGRO3 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	7.8x
TTEN3 Três Tentos Agroindustrial S/A	9.1x	17.0%	R$4.0b
SLCE3 SLC Agrícola	6.1x	-5.9%	R$9.0b
SOJA3 Boa Safra Sementes	10.3x	n/a	R$1.3b
JALL3 Jalles Machado S/A	5.7x	17.4%	R$2.2b
AGRO3 BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas	4.1x	-32.7%	R$2.3b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AGRO3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.1x) compared to the peer average (7.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AGRO3's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Food Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AGRO3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.1x) compared to the BR Food industry average (8.4x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AGRO3's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AGRO3 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	4.1x
Fair PE Ratio	4.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AGRO3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AGRO3 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AGRO3 (R$23.69) is trading below our estimate of fair value (R$68.35)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AGRO3 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: AGRO3's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

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Future Growth

How is BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-32.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AGRO3's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-32.7% per year).

Earnings vs Market: AGRO3's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-32.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AGRO3's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AGRO3's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-19.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AGRO3's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-19.4% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AGRO3's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13.2%).

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Past Performance

How has BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

32.8%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AGRO3 has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: AGRO3's current net profit margins (42.4%) are higher than last year (5.3%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AGRO3 has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 32.8% per year.

Accelerating Growth: AGRO3's earnings growth over the past year (1580.2%) exceeds its 5-year average (32.8% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: AGRO3 earnings growth over the past year (1580.2%) exceeded the Food industry 54%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: AGRO3's Return on Equity (35.2%) is considered high.

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Financial Health

How is BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AGRO3's short term assets (R$1.8B) exceed its short term liabilities (R$364.4M).

Long Term Liabilities: AGRO3's short term assets (R$1.8B) exceed its long term liabilities (R$659.5M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AGRO3 has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: AGRO3's debt to equity ratio has increased from 13.2% to 17.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: AGRO3's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (24.5%).

Interest Coverage: AGRO3's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (12.4x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

8.51%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: AGRO3's dividend (8.51%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the BR market (1.75%).

High Dividend: AGRO3's dividend (8.51%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the BR market (7.98%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: AGRO3 has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: AGRO3's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 9 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: At its current payout ratio (78.6%), AGRO3's payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (304.1%), AGRO3's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

0.8yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

André Guillaumon (48 yo)

14.92yrs

Tenure

Mr. André Guillaumon has been Chief Executive Officer of BrasilAgro-Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agricolas since August 19, 2016 and serves as its Member of Board of Executive Officers. Mr. Guillau...

Board Members

Experienced Board: AGRO3's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 0.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/05 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/05 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/06/30