Vulcabras S.A. (BVMF:VULC3) Just Released Its First-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Last week, you might have seen that Vulcabras S.A. (BVMF:VULC3) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.7% to R$15.77 in the past week. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of R$2.01 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of R$597m came in 2.1% ahead of analyst predictions. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Vulcabras

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Vulcabras' three analysts is for revenues of R$3.03b in 2024. This reflects a credible 6.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 11% to R$2.04. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of R$3.02b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$2.24 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at R$24.67, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Vulcabras at R$25.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at R$24.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Vulcabras' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 8.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 21% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Vulcabras is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Vulcabras' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Vulcabras. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Vulcabras going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Vulcabras , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.