Strong week for PBG (BVMF:PTBL3) shareholders doesn't alleviate pain of three-year loss

PBG S.A. (BVMF:PTBL3) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 13% in the last week. Meanwhile over the last three years the stock has dropped hard. Tragically, the share price declined 56% in that time. So the improvement may be a real relief to some. While many would remain nervous, there could be further gains if the business can put its best foot forward.

Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last three years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.

See our latest analysis for PBG

PBG isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.

Over three years, PBG grew revenue at 5.9% per year. That's not a very high growth rate considering it doesn't make profits. It's likely this weak growth has contributed to an annualised return of 16% for the last three years. When a stock falls hard like this, some investors like to add the company to a watchlist (in case the business recovers, longer term). Keep in mind it isn't unusual for good businesses to have a tough time or a couple of uninspiring years.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

This free interactive report on PBG's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between PBG's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for PBG shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 53%, over the last 3 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 3.0% in the twelve months, PBG shareholders did even worse, losing 44%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 5% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with PBG (at least 2 which make us uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Brazilian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.