At R$25.90, Is Tupy S.A. (BVMF:TUPY3) Worth Looking At Closely?

Tupy S.A. (BVMF:TUPY3), is not the largest company out there, but it led the BOVESPA gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. With many analysts covering the stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Tupy’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

View our latest analysis for Tupy

What's the opportunity in Tupy?

According to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average, the stock price seems to be justfied. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 32.06x is currently trading in-line with its industry peers’ ratio, which means if you buy Tupy today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Tupy’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

What kind of growth will Tupy generate?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Tupy's earnings over the next few years are expected to double, indicating a very optimistic future ahead. This should lead to stronger cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? TUPY3’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at TUPY3? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on TUPY3, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the optimistic forecast is encouraging for TUPY3, which means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. To help with this, we've discovered 3 warning signs (1 can't be ignored!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Tupy.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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