Barrick Gold Corporation

BUL:ABR Stock Report

Market Cap: €26.3b

Barrick Gold Valuation

Is ABR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ABR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ABR (€14.81) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€38.44)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ABR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ABR?

Key metric: As ABR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ABR. This is calculated by dividing ABR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ABR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.8x
EarningsUS$1.63b
Market CapUS$27.40b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ABR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ABR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21.2x
WPM Wheaton Precious Metals
42.5x9.6%CA$37.3b
PLZL Polyus
7.3xn/a₽1.1t
NCM Newcrest Mining
17.2x12.2%AU$20.8b
GFI Gold Fields
17.9x32.8%R224.5b
ABR Barrick Gold
16.8x19.5%€39.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ABR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.8x) compared to the peer average (30.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ABR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

15 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ABR 16.8xIndustry Avg. 11.7xNo. of Companies15PE0816243240+
15 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ABR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.8x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (11.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ABR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ABR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.8x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ABR's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ABR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€14.81
€21.75
+46.8%
9.6%€25.83€18.05n/a11
Dec ’25€16.77
€22.07
+31.6%
10.0%€25.88€18.21n/a11
Nov ’25€18.32
€22.29
+21.7%
8.0%€25.50€19.42n/a11
Oct ’25n/a
€20.70
0%
9.5%€25.10€18.61n/a11
Sep ’25n/a
€20.15
0%
9.5%€24.78€17.65n/a11
Aug ’25n/a
€20.21
0%
11.1%€25.80€17.21n/a11
Jul ’25n/a
€20.27
0%
11.9%€24.45€17.38n/a11
Jun ’25n/a
€19.91
0%
12.1%€24.09€16.66n/a11
May ’25n/a
€19.87
0%
13.3%€24.47€15.99n/a11
Apr ’25n/a
€18.27
0%
16.0%€23.79€13.17n/a11
Mar ’25€13.55
€18.26
+34.8%
16.1%€23.83€13.18n/a11
Feb ’25€14.35
€19.45
+35.5%
14.5%€24.93€15.81n/a11
Jan ’25n/a
€19.68
0%
15.6%€27.30€15.53n/a10
Dec ’24€15.23
€19.23
+26.2%
17.6%€27.55€14.14€16.7711
Nov ’24€15.90
€19.99
+25.7%
18.3%€28.38€13.52€18.3211
Oct ’24n/a
€20.76
0%
14.9%€28.44€16.27n/a11
Sep ’24n/a
€19.46
0%
10.0%€23.22€15.82n/a10
Aug ’24n/a
€19.46
0%
10.1%€23.27€16.04n/a10
Jul ’24n/a
€19.93
0%
9.9%€22.94€16.31n/a11
Jun ’24n/a
€20.21
0%
9.6%€23.27€16.54n/a12
May ’24n/a
€20.00
0%
10.1%€23.02€15.50n/a11
Apr ’24n/a
€18.87
0%
10.5%€22.69€15.67n/a11
Mar ’24n/a
€19.62
0%
9.5%€23.26€17.01€13.5511
Feb ’24n/a
€19.86
0%
13.1%€26.40€16.14€14.3511
Jan ’24n/a
€20.07
0%
17.7%€27.31€14.43n/a11
Dec ’23n/a
€20.56
0%
18.4%€28.09€14.84€15.2311

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/28 07:27
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/23 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Barrick Gold Corporation is covered by 59 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Harriet LiAccountability Research Corporation
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Fabrizio SpagnaAxia Financial Research