Marathon Oil Corporation

ENXTBR:MROIL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$16.2b

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Marathon Oil Valuation

Is MROIL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MROIL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MROIL ($15.62) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MROIL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MROIL?

Key metric: As MROIL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MROIL. This is calculated by dividing MROIL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MROIL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.6x
EarningsUS$2.05b
Market CapUS$16.20b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MROIL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MROIL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.5x
CMBT Cmb.Tech
1.5x-50.2%€1.7b
AKRBP Aker BP
8.3x0.7%NOK 134.8b
1605 Inpex
6x-7.4%JP¥2.3t
STO Santos
10.3x11.2%AU$20.7b
MROIL Marathon Oil
7.6x-6.6%US$16.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MROIL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.6x) compared to the peer average (17.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MROIL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MROIL 7.6xIndustry Avg. 8.3xNo. of Companies18PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MROIL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.6x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (5.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MROIL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MROIL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.6x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MROIL's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MROIL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
US$32.91
0%
14.7%US$45.00US$22.00n/a25
Dec ’25n/a
US$32.91
0%
14.7%US$45.00US$22.00n/a25
Nov ’25n/a
US$32.91
0%
14.7%US$45.00US$22.00n/a25
Oct ’25n/a
US$32.91
0%
14.7%US$45.00US$22.00n/a25
Sep ’25n/a
US$32.91
0%
14.7%US$45.00US$22.00n/a25
Aug ’25n/a
US$32.91
0%
14.7%US$45.00US$22.00n/a25
Jul ’25n/a
US$32.91
0%
14.7%US$45.00US$22.00n/a25
Jun ’25n/a
US$32.91
0%
14.7%US$45.00US$22.00n/a25
May ’25n/a
US$32.91
0%
14.7%US$45.00US$22.00n/a25
Apr ’25n/a
US$32.91
0%
14.7%US$45.00US$22.00n/a25
Mar ’25n/a
US$32.91
0%
14.7%US$45.00US$22.00n/a25
Feb ’25n/a
US$32.91
0%
14.7%US$45.00US$22.00n/a25
Jan ’25n/a
US$32.91
0%
14.7%US$45.00US$22.00n/a25
Dec ’24n/a
US$32.91
0%
14.7%US$45.00US$22.00n/a25
Nov ’24n/a
US$32.91
0%
14.7%US$45.00US$22.00n/a25
Oct ’24US$15.62
US$32.87
+110.4%
14.9%US$45.00US$22.00n/a25
Sep ’24US$15.62
US$32.31
+106.8%
14.6%US$40.00US$22.00n/a25
Aug ’24US$15.72
US$31.45
+100.1%
14.6%US$40.00US$25.00n/a25
Jul ’24US$15.72
US$32.45
+106.4%
17.9%US$48.00US$25.00n/a25
Jun ’24n/a
US$32.93
0%
16.8%US$48.00US$25.00n/a25
May ’24n/a
US$33.33
0%
16.3%US$48.00US$23.00n/a26
Apr ’24n/a
US$33.07
0%
15.8%US$43.00US$23.00n/a26
Mar ’24n/a
US$33.72
0%
15.2%US$48.00US$23.00n/a26
Feb ’24n/a
US$34.11
0%
15.1%US$48.00US$23.00n/a25
Jan ’24n/a
US$34.30
0%
16.4%US$48.00US$23.00n/a23
Dec ’23n/a
US$34.30
0%
16.7%US$48.00US$23.00n/a23

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2023/10/03 01:01
End of Day Share Price 2023/10/02 00:00
Earnings2023/06/30
Annual Earnings2022/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Marathon Oil Corporation is covered by 47 analysts. 19 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
William SeleskyArgus Research Company
Finbarr MacCarthyAtlantic Equities LLP
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research