Azelis Group NV Just Missed EPS By 28%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week, you might have seen that Azelis Group NV (EBR:AZE) released its interim result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.9% to €16.94 in the past week. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of €2.1b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 28% to hit €0.39 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Azelis Group

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Azelis Group from twelve analysts is for revenues of €4.28b in 2024. If met, it would imply a reasonable 3.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 46% to €1.01. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €4.30b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.94 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Azelis Group's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at €24.69, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Azelis Group analyst has a price target of €31.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €20.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Azelis Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Azelis Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Azelis Group's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €24.69, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Azelis Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Azelis Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Azelis Group that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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